A make-or-break return

Social media feeds of BNP leaders and activists have been flooded in recent days with videos, posters and digital cards bearing an exuberant slogan: "Leader is coming home!" Across Dhaka, placards carrying the same message hang from electricity poles. Thousands of party activists have begun marching towards the capital from different parts of the country, preparing a grand reception.

Today, Tarique Rahman, the BNP's acting chairman, returns to Bangladesh after more than 17 years in exile. His homecoming, ahead of the February national election, marks a defining moment not only for the party but also for the country's fragile political transition. BNP leaders are openly predicting a landslide victory – one that could propel Tarique to the premiership and return the party to power after nearly two decades in opposition.

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A historic opportunity and unprecedented expectations

Such an outcome would end the longest spell out of office in BNP's history since its founding in 1978 by the late president Ziaur Rahman. Yet the scale of expectation surrounding Tarique's return is matched by the enormity of the challenges he faces.

From London, where he led the party in exile, Tarique repeatedly told party activists that the upcoming election would be a severe test for the nation. The political turbulence following the fall of the Hasina regime in August last year has only reinforced that warning. The election now shaping up is arguably the highest-stakes contest Bangladesh has ever witnessed – fraught with uncertainty, polarisation and a volatile street situation.

From exile to return: A changed political landscape

The gulf between the day Tarique left Bangladesh in September 2008 and the day he returns is vast. When he was forced into exile months before the December 2008 election, BNP was led on the ground by his mother, Khaleda Zia, a three-time prime minister. She spearheaded street movements against the Hasina government, particularly over the abolition of the non-partisan caretaker government system in 2011.

What followed was an unprecedented crackdown. Tens of thousands of BNP leaders and activists were implicated in cases and jailed. Khaleda Zia herself was imprisoned in February 2018 on corruption charges, disqualifying her from contesting that year's election, an election widely derided as the "midnight polls". Her health deteriorated sharply in custody. Today, she lies critically ill in hospital, a powerful symbol of BNP's long political ordeal.

The inheritance of a political legacy

Khaleda Zia's own political journey was formidable. After the assassination of Ziaur Rahman in 1981, she rebuilt the party and led movements against two authoritarian regimes, those of General Ershad and Sheikh Hasina, eventually guiding BNP to power three times. Now, the baton has passed to Tarique Rahman, who has led the party remotely since his mother's imprisonment. His absence was keenly felt by grassroots activists; his return is therefore emotionally charged.

No longer an easy path to power

Yet this is a make-or-break moment. Following the fall of the Hasina regime and the banning of Awami League activities, effectively disqualifying it from the election, many assumed BNP's path to power was clear. That assumption has steadily unravelled.

Over the past 16 months, the political environment has grown increasingly unstable. Mob violence, attacks on journalists and arson at two national dailies have raised alarms about law and order and press freedom. Political analysts and even BNP leaders now warn that Bangladesh is slipping into "mobocracy", undermining hopes that the regime change would usher in stability and democratic renewal.

Jamaat emerges as the principal challenger

Complicating matters further is the re-emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami as BNP's principal electoral challenger. Once a key ally in the BNP-led four-party alliance that won the 2001 election, Jamaat is now flexing its muscle through large rallies in and outside Dhaka. With Awami League absent from the race, Jamaat views the February election as its own "now or never" moment, setting up a direct contest with BNP for political dominance.

Uncertainty over the election and security concerns

Amid this uncertainty, questions persist over whether the election will be held on time and whether it will be free and fair. Concerns over Tarique Rahman's personal security also linger. Still, BNP leaders believe his physical presence will reinvigorate the party's base and exert pressure on the interim authorities to stay the course towards elections, with support from other democratic and progressive forces.

A crossroads for Bangladesh's democracy

Bangladesh now stands at a crossroads. The same volatility that threatens disorder also presents Tarique Rahman with an opportunity to rise above partisan politics and shape a credible democratic transition. In recent months, he has spoken repeatedly of reconciliation and an end to politics of vengeance, positioning himself as a leader for the future rather than merely a beneficiary of regime change.

Courting a young electorate

He returns with two key political propositions. The first is a youth-centric vision. Around 40 million voters, roughly one-third of the electorate, will vote for the first time in February. Tarique has sought to connect with them through promises of education reform focused on information technology, improved healthcare, and job creation as a top priority.

The battle over the Liberation War narrative

The second is the contested narrative of the Liberation War. Under the Hasina government, the official narrative centred almost exclusively on Awami League and Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, marginalising other contributions. Since her fall, Jamaat and allied forces have pushed alternative interpretations that many see as distorting history. Tarique and senior BNP leaders have strongly condemned such attempts, arguing that defending the true history of 1971 is essential particularly given Ziaur Rahman's role as a freedom fighter and his declaration of independence.

The real test begins after the vote

Even if the BNP wins, the hardest challenges will come after the election. State institutions are deeply weakened. While the interim government has stabilised the economy, it has become largely inert. Economists warn that repairing the damage caused by years of kleptocratic governance will take at least four to five years.

Tarique Rahman, if he comes to power, will inherit a country in distress. There will be no magic solutions, no shortcuts to rebuilding trust, institutions and the economy. His return may energise a movement – but governing a fractured nation will be the real test of leadership.