Saudi job boom ahead but Bangladeshi workers might miss out. Here’s why

Infograph: TBS

Highlights:

• Saudi infrastructure boom creates demand for skilled foreign workers
• Bangladesh risks losing out due to low-skilled labor focus
• Saudi nationalisation policies reducing low-skilled foreign worker opportunities
• Remittances from Saudi Arabia are steadily declining each year
• Vision 2030 emphasizes skilled jobs in tech, tourism, healthcare
• Urgent need for Bangladesh to upgrade worker skills and training

As Saudi Arabia gears up to host the World Expo in 2030 and the FIFA World Cup in 2034, the Kingdom is embarking on an unparalleled infrastructure drive, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into smart cities, airports, metros, highways, stadiums, hotels, and digital backbones. This sweeping transformation, guided by its Vision 2030 blueprint, aims to establish Saudi Arabia as a global powerhouse for tourism, sports, and innovation.

This construction and services boom is set to generate millions of jobs, attract multinational corporations, and draw in hundreds of millions of visitors. For a labour-exporting nation like Bangladesh, this might seem like a golden opportunity. However, whether Bangladesh can truly capitalise on this moment remains uncertain.

Bangladeshi workers have historically been the bedrock of Saudi Arabia's labour force. Yet, as the Kingdom modernises, its demands are evolving. There's a growing need for higher skills, stronger Arabic and English proficiency, and soft skills that align with international service standards – areas where Bangladesh is currently falling behind.

"Saudi Arabia is now focused on higher skills. Automation is already taking over high-paying jobs and IT roles," explained Noman Chowdhury, a former vice-president of the Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (Baira), who has been sending workers to the Gulf for over four decades. "In the near future, even low-end jobs like cleaning and maintenance may be done by machines."

Nationalisation schemes tighten grip on jobs

Adding to the concern are the Saudi government's nationalisation schemes, such as "Nitaqat," which are significantly reshaping the labour market. Many sectors, from electronics to jewellery shops, now mandate 100% Saudi employment. Even for unskilled positions like helpers, companies must hire at least one Saudi national for every 10 foreign workers. This tightening grip on local hiring is gradually squeezing out low-skilled foreign labour.

"Bangladeshis are now struggling to pass the mandatory skill certification exams under the Taqamul programme, which is required before visas are issued in many sectors," Noman told TBS. "If this becomes mandatory across the board, the number of Bangladeshi workers entering Saudi Arabia could plummet from the current 5-6 lakh annually to as low as 50,000."

Despite these warnings, a senior official at the Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BMET) expressed a more optimistic view, stating, "I don't believe Saudi Arabia will reduce job opportunities for our workers – they trust Bangladeshis. There's a deep cultural connection, and employers feel at ease with our labour force." 

He added that Bangladesh is taking proactive steps, including new skill verification programmes, to adapt to the evolving Saudi job market.

However, experts caution that without a coordinated and swift national response – involving upskilling workers, aligning training with Saudi needs, improving language education, and diversifying labour markets – Bangladesh risks losing out on a future it once largely dominated.

A shifting landscape: Remittances decline amidst low-skilled reliance

Bangladesh has long relied on Saudi Arabia as its primary overseas job market, a dominance reflected in the numbers. 

In FY24 alone, 5.26 lakh workers migrated to the Kingdom, following 4.52 lakh in FY23 and 6.53 lakh in FY22. Over the past five years, Saudi Arabia accounted for nearly 57% of the approximately 45 lakh (4.5 million) Bangladeshi workers sent abroad, according to BMET data.

However, this substantial outflow is predominantly concentrated in low-skilled jobs, with over 80% of workers employed in such roles. Unofficial estimates suggest more than 30 lakh Bangladeshis currently work in Saudi Arabia, making it the largest single destination for Bangladeshi labour overseas.

Despite this large workforce, remittances from Saudi Arabia have sharply declined – a worrying indicator that the Kingdom is indeed tightening restrictions on unskilled labour. 

Many workers reportedly face permit renewal denials unless they pay steep Iqama (residency permit) fees, discouraging extended stays.

Bangladesh Bank's remittance data underscores this trend: inflows from Saudi Arabia peaked at $5.72 billion in FY21 but dropped to $4.54 billion in FY22, $3.77 billion in FY23, and further plunged to $2.74 billion in FY24.

Vision 2030: Reshaping the future of Saudi jobs

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 programme, launched in April 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is a comprehensive strategic framework designed to diversify the nation's economic, social, and cultural life. 

It aims to reduce the Kingdom's dependency on oil, foster social progress, and develop various economic sectors, as noted by Centuro Global, an international business consultancy firm.

"The transformation via Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia is incredible. It has created both opportunities and challenges for our jobs and businesses," said Professor Mohammad Nurunnabi, chair of the Department of Accounting at Prince Sultan University, Saudi Arabia. "The government now wants skilled or semi-skilled workers and intends to send unskilled workers back."

Highlighting the opportunities, he urged, "The Bangladesh government should adopt a strategy on which types of workers to target. In many cases, a normal worker does not even earn 1,000 Riyals, while a plumber earns twice that." 

He criticised the lack of long-term planning, adding, "We [Bangladesh] have not made any plans in the past 54 years. After the Philippines, Sri Lanka is now sending a large number of nurses to Saudi Arabia. What are we doing?"

With an ambitious goal to increase foreign investment to 5.7% of GDP by 2030, up from 0.7% in 2022, Saudi Arabia is funnelling resources into diversifying its economy and attracting investments across various sectors. 

This transition is fuelling a surge in demand for skilled professionals, particularly in emerging fields such as green energy, IT, healthcare, logistics, and tourism.

Mega-opportunities and evolving demands

As Saudi Arabia accelerates its Vision 2030 infrastructure projects and prepares to host the World Expo 2030 and FIFA World Cup 2034, migrant workers remain central to this transformation. 

With nearly 16 million workers forming the bulk of the private sector workforce, they are the engine of the Kingdom's economy, according to the Mixed Migration Centre.

Mega-projects like Amaala, Al Ula, Jeddah Tower, and Diriyah are economic drivers anticipated to create around 2 million jobs over the next decade, ranging from skilled labourers to architects and engineers. 

High-end developments such as the Red Sea Project and Qiddiya entertainment hub will reshape hospitality, potentially generating up to 70,000 jobs by 2030 for hoteliers, chefs, tour guides, and event planners.

Migration expert Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikder, a faculty member at North South University, noted that while some manual jobs like drain cleaning and waste management will remain, many tasks will be automated. 

He emphasised that while unskilled worker demand won't vanish, change is inevitable. He highlighted that many Saudi service jobs, such as hotel front desk and app-based food ordering, now require digital literacy and soft skills, which most Bangladeshi workers currently lack.

"In Malaysia, plastering and painting are done by machines operated by one person. Learning such skills is essential," Sikder stressed. He added that migration for low-skilled workers must be safe and secure, with training on better-paying jobs, language skills, and protection against exploitation.

New classification for expats: A call for preparedness

Saudi Arabia has launched a new classification system for expatriate work permits to enhance labour market efficiency, attract global expertise, and support Vision 2030. According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), foreign workers will be categorised into three tiers – high-skill, skilled, and basic – based on qualifications, experience, technical ability, wages, and age.

The system took effect for new expatriates on 1st July, with reclassification of existing residents starting on 18th June. 

This reform aligns with Saudi Arabia's rapid development of giga-projects like NEOM, the Red Sea Project, Qiddiya, and Diriyah Gate, which demand highly skilled professionals in construction, engineering, tourism, and technology.

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development stated that the system aims to "enhance worker performance, attract global talent to transfer expertise, improve efficiency, leverage international experience, and foster innovation and business development."

Monir Uddin Ahmed, assistant professor at Qassim University, believes that while demand for low-skilled workers will decline, it won't drop drastically. 

"Currently, many Bangladeshi workers go abroad without certifications despite having skills. The government needs to address this," he urged.

Baira's Noman Chowdhury reiterated the need for immediate action: "The government must establish large-scale skill training and certification centres. Skills development should be boosted through Vocational Education and Training and Public-Private Partnerships." 

He added, "Preparation is needed to send skilled and semi-skilled workers – such as nurses, medical technicians, AutoCAD operators, and diploma engineers. Workers must be trained to meet international standards, including language and technology skills."