Bangladesh must assert strategic autonomy as Indo-Pacific power dynamics shift: Experts
Opening his address with a strong message, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain said that Bangladesh will chart its own course amid global realignments and intensifying geopolitical competition in this region
Highlights:
- Bangladesh must assert strategic autonomy amid Indo-Pacific changes
- Bay of Bengal becoming key regional strategic fulcrum
- Bangladesh urged to diversify economy, reduce Western reliance
- Asian economies now dominate global trade and capital flows
- Reform-resistant political-business-bureaucratic coalition hinders national progress
- Continuous, creative policies needed for sustainable economic and political reform
Policymakers and experts have said that Bangladesh must assert its strategic autonomy and urgently recalibrate economic and geopolitical priorities amid rapidly changing power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
Speaking on the first day of the Bay of Bengal Conversation (BoBC) 2025 at a hotel in Dhaka, they said the country can no longer rely on old assumptions – whether in diplomacy or trade – and must adopt a more active and confident approach to protect its national interests in a rapidly changing world.
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Opening his address with a strong message, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain said that Bangladesh will chart its own course amid global realignments and intensifying geopolitical competition in this region.
"Bangladesh insists on its sovereignty and the right to pursue its national interest… The Bay of Bengal region is becoming a strategic fulcrum, and Bangladesh intends to be a confident actor, not a passive corridor," said the adviser.
Renowned economist Professor Rehman Sobhan has also called on Bangladesh to fundamentally reassess its global economic strategy amid the rapid shift of global power toward Asia, cautioning that continued reliance on Western markets and outdated assumptions could leave the country vulnerable.
"The Bay of Bengal region is becoming a strategic fulcrum, and Bangladesh intends to be a confident actor, not a passive corridor."
To align with the new global economic landscape, Sobhan said Bangladesh must adopt "much smarter and dynamic policies" and cultivate "a much more adventurous and creative private sector."
The annual conference, organised by the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS), brought together senior judges, diplomats, security analysts, and researchers in Dhaka. This year's theme, "Rivals, Ruptures, Realignments: Navigating Power and Purpose in a Disordered World," framed a speech that combined geopolitical analysis with clear policy positions.
The BoBC 2025 – which will continue till 24 November – brought together 200 speakers, 300 delegates, and more than 1,000 participants representing 85 countries, according to CGS.
Chief Justice of Bangladesh Syed Refaat Ahmed, economist Debapriya Bhattacharya, Centre for Governance Studies (CGS) President Zillur Rahman and CGS Executive Director Parvez Karim Abbasi spoke at the inaugural session.
"This is a world in which we are emerging into a new order. We will need more creative policy-making and more adventurous private enterprise,"
'Dhaka to remain an active, sovereign player': Touhid
Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain has warned against falling into polarised geopolitical blocs. "In moments of realignment, states are tempted to pick sides, but we should first pick the right course," he said.
Touhid said Bangladesh will remain "an active, sovereign, and responsible player" engaging confidently, speaking firmly when needed, and collaborating to advance national interest and regional stability.
He said Bangladesh will work with both major and middle powers based on sovereign equality and mutual respect. Partnerships, he said, must deliver "tangible benefits, not symbolic only."
Calling the Bay of Bengal an emerging strategic centre of gravity, Touhid said Bangladesh intends to shape regional outcomes rather than be shaped by them.
With global supply chains shifting and sanctions reshaping trade flows, Bangladesh must diversify and deepen regional cooperation. Economic partnerships should not become "predatory" but must ensure shared resilience and opportunity.
He also urged transforming the Bay of Bengal into a "corridor of growth and prosperity," calling for stronger regional and multilateral institutions to "deliver, not just talk."
The foreign adviser also called for regional collaboration on technology exchange, environmental security, and climate diplomacy, saying countries must strive to lead rather than merely respond to climate shocks.
"Bangladesh must now dismantle an entrenched anti-reform coalition if it is to move towards a new political settlement."
'Bangladesh must reorient toward emerging Asian power centres': Sobhan
Noted economist Rehman Sobhan said the world of 2025 is "a much more changed world," where economic power is relocating to the Global South, with its epicentre in South, Southeast and East Asia.
He said that China is already the world's largest economy in purchasing power terms, India is rising fast, and by 2050, China, India, and Indonesia are projected to become three of the top four global economies.
Sobhan highlighted three forces driving this transformation: global trade realignments, shifts in capital flows, and technological change. China is now the world's largest exporter and the principal trading partner of countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, displacing the decades-long dominance of the United States.
He pointed out that China has also become the largest supplier of capital in the global system, distributing $2.1 trillion in aid and loans between 2000 and 2024 – more than the US. China, Japan, and other Asian economies now dominate global reserves and sovereign wealth funds, a reality Bangladesh cannot ignore.
Sobhan emphasised that Bangladesh's historical orientation toward Western economies is no longer aligned with global realities. When Bangladesh emerged, Western development partners underwrote 12% of its GDP. Today, aid reliance has fallen to around 2%, and $50 billion in committed assistance remains unused.
"The main sources now of capital investment and financing are coming from countries within the Asian region," he said, noting that China alone has around $40 billion invested in Bangladesh through loans and various financing instruments.
Despite this shift, Bangladesh remains preoccupied with retaining US and Western markets – especially for ready-made garments – and clinging to LDC advantages. Sobhan warned that such dependence is risky, particularly under the unpredictable and "transactional" trade policies of the US under Donald Trump.
He argued that Bangladesh has failed to take advantage of duty-free access to India since 2010 and has not integrated itself into the supply chains of China and India, despite their scale and growth potential.
He urged businesses and policymakers to move beyond the "LDC cocoon" and reposition Bangladesh within the emerging Asian-led global value chains, where future markets, capital, and technological opportunities are expanding.
"This is a world in which we are emerging into a new order. We will need more creative policy-making and more adventurous private enterprise," said Rehman Sobhan.
'Breaking anti-reform force key to new political settlement': Debapriya
Bangladesh must now confront how to dismantle an entrenched anti-reform coalition if it is to move towards a new political settlement, said economist Debapriya Bhattacharya.
Speaking at a "Speed Talk" session during the Conversation, he said the coalition – comprising politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats – had resisted competition and accountability for more than a decade.
Debapriya said the intellectual foundation for the current reform demand drew heavily from the recently published White Paper, which he led in drafting. Its findings, he explained, showed that what had been called "development" over the past decade and a half had taken the shape of "performance without accountability".
According to him, this created three powerful groups – political, business and bureaucratic actors – who operated above competition. "This system produced authoritarian tendencies and what I describe as the rise of oligarchs," he said.
He added that these oligarchs had captured major parts of the economy and state mechanisms, including banking, the power sector and export regimes.
As the country looks towards a new political settlement, he said the pressing question is how to break this coalition that consistently resisted reforms. Reflecting on lessons from Bangladesh's own experience, Debapriya said reforms do not always require a heavy-handed approach or overly complex measures.
He said designing reforms is comparatively easy, but implementing them is among the most difficult tasks. "There is no shortcut," he said.
He emphasised that reforms are a continuous process that does not begin or end with a single government. "Governments change, but the country remains. The people remain. The stakeholders remain," he said, noting the need to maintain momentum and avoid slipping back into inertia.
After working intensely on reform issues for the past year and a half, he likened the situation to the plot of Tom Cruise's latest "Mission Impossible" film.
"This is mission impossible," he said, adding that the film's title – The Final Reckoning – echoes the ultimate challenge for any economist: delivering successful reform.
Among others, EU Ambassador Michael Miller, Nepal Ambassador Ghanshyam Bhandari, The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam, security analyst Maj Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, also spoke at various sessions of BoBC 2025.
ANM Muniruzzaman said, "India, as a friendly neighbour, should respect Bangladesh's legal systems and return former prime minister Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh."
