LNG dependence may deepen Bangladesh's economic crisis in next decade: International Energy Agency
While LNG prices in Asia are forecast to drop to around $7.5 per million British thermal units (MBtu) by 2030–2035—roughly 40% below current levels—Bangladesh’s infrastructure bottlenecks and financing challenges could limit import expansion
Bangladesh's growing reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) could strain the country's economy and energy security over the next decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its World Energy Outlook 2025, released today (12 November).
The report projects that by 2035, Bangladesh and Pakistan's combined LNG imports will reach around 80 billion cubic meters (bcm), a 60% rise from 2024 levels. The IEA flagged three intertwined challenges: surging energy demand, declining domestic gas reserves, and vulnerability of energy infrastructure to climate-related shocks.
"High import prices, limited storage and regasification capacity, and climate risks make the current LNG-dependent model economically and environmentally unsustainable," the report said. Once largely self-sufficient in natural gas, Bangladesh now imports nearly one-fifth of its total consumption.
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Extreme weather poses additional risks. Citing cyclones and floods in 2023, the IEA noted, "Such incidents underline the fragility of coastal energy facilities to climate shocks, resulting in disruptions of LNG supplies and temporary shutdowns of power plants."
While LNG prices in Asia are forecast to drop to around $7.5 per million British thermal units (MBtu) by 2030–2035—roughly 40% below current levels—Bangladesh's infrastructure bottlenecks and financing challenges could limit import expansion.
On renewable energy, the report highlighted slow progress. Despite pledging to generate 30% of electricity from renewables by 2040, less than 5% of Bangladesh's current electricity capacity comes from solar or wind. The IEA urged rapid expansion of renewable generation, noting that doing so "could improve both economic resilience and air quality."
The report also warned that billions of dollars spent annually on energy imports and climate adaptation could rise unless Bangladesh diversifies its energy mix and strengthens resilience. The IEA concluded that the country's energy future depends not just on fuel choices, but on its ability to adapt to climate impacts while balancing development and sustainability.
