After HSC results plunge, private universities brace for worst admission season

This year's Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) results have sent shockwaves through Bangladesh's higher education sector, with educators warning that the dismal performance could worsen the enrolment crisis at private universities already struggling with vacant seats and financial strain.

According to data from the education boards, both the overall pass rate and the number of GPA-5 achievers have dropped sharply compared to last year. With fewer students qualifying for competitive programmes, admission pressure on public universities is expected to intensify, leaving private institutions to compete for a smaller pool of eligible candidates.

Belal Ahmed, director of the Association of Private Universities of Bangladesh, told TBS that the lower pass rate will reduce the number of eligible students, affecting not only private universities but also public and National University institutions.

"Private universities will face an even greater challenge due to the drop in GPA-5 achievers," he said. "Top-tier private universities generally do not admit students with a GPA below 4. So, with fewer students securing GPA-5 or GPA-4, these institutions will struggle even more," he added.

"It's not just about grades – it's about confidence," said education analyst Rasheda K Chowdhury. "When results drop, many families start doubting whether paying high tuition fees for private universities is worthwhile. Some may choose diploma courses instead, while others might wait to retake the exams next year."

Dhaka University's Institute of Education and Research (IER) Professor Mohammad Mojibur Rahman said, "Except for a handful, most private universities remain in a fragile state. There are even allegations that some institutions issue certificates without holding proper classes."

"Private universities will undoubtedly struggle to meet their enrolment targets this year," said another academic, requesting anonymity. "Students always prioritise public universities, and only turn to private ones when they fail to secure a seat."

Shrinking pool of eligible students

According to the University Grants Commission's (UGC) latest 50th annual report, 50 public universities offered 50,455 first-year seats in four-year honours programs, of which 49,883 were filled. In contrast, 110 private universities enrolled around 358,414 students in total.

However, many newer institutions, especially those located outside Dhaka, continue to face significant seat shortages due to weaker infrastructure and limited reputation.

"Most private universities do not embody the true concept of a university. Some have merely converted rented houses into campuses," said Professor Emeritus Manzoor Ahmed of BracUniversity. "With such poor standards, no aware student would willingly study there."

Education analysts fear that the 2025 HSC downturn could further aggravate the situation. Private universities dependent on tuition fees may face another difficult year as fewer students pursue admission.

Top-tier vs struggling institutions

Elite universities such as BRAC University, North South University, and the University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh are expected to maintain healthy enrolment, given their strong academic reputation and brand value. 

But mid- and lower-tier institutions, especially those outside the capital, could face record-high vacancy rates. According to UGC's 49th annual report (2022), 38.2% of the 240,406 available seats at private universities remained vacant, underscoring the sector's uneven capacity utilisation.

Falling admissions directly translate into reduced revenue, posing severe risks to institutions reliant almost entirely on tuition fees for survival. Many smaller universities are already struggling to retain faculty and maintain facilities amid declining income.

"Another year of poor intake could push some universities to the brink," said the treasurer of a private university outside Dhaka, requesting anonymity. "We are already operating at 60% capacity. If this continues, both quality and sustainability will be jeopardised."

A deeper concern

Experts say the problem runs deeper than this year's results; it reflects a growing mismatch between the number of available university seats and the academic readiness of students completing secondary education. 

While Bangladesh has rapidly expanded access to higher education, the quality of school-level learning and assessment has lagged behind.

As the admission season approaches, the UGC and private universities are expected to closely monitor application trends. Some institutions are already preparing to extend admission deadlines and introduce new scholarship schemes to attract students, an effort that may prove vital to their survival in the months ahead.