Bangladesh’s 3,000MW rooftop solar target by December overambitious: IEEFA

Bangladesh's plan to install 3,000 megawatts of rooftop solar capacity by December 2025 is unrealistic given the country's limited progress so far, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

The US-based energy think tank, in its briefing published yesterday, noted that the Bangladesh government's announcement of its new solar programme comes as a boost to the sector amid the ongoing energy crisis, but questioned whether the target is overly ambitious.

It pointed out that the country added only 245MW of rooftop solar between June 2008 and June 2025 and achieving 3,000MW by December would therefore require a more than twelvefold acceleration.

The Power Division, in a circular issued on 7 July, announced the programme to add around 3,000MW of electricity to the national grid by the end of this year through rooftop solar installations on public buildings.

The circular stated that panels will be installed in all government offices, schools, colleges, madrasas and hospitals across the country, under the government's National Rooftop Solar Programme.

Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA's lead energy analyst for Bangladesh and author of the note, said the sanctioned load of government offices, hospitals, educational institutions and religious establishments is unlikely to be sufficient for such large-scale rooftop solar deployment.

He recommended that the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings.

Limited rooftop solar potential in designated buildings, inadequate quality control and budget for maintenance under the CAPEX model, and the risks associated with small-scale projects in rural areas under the OPEX model could derail plans. Illustration: IEEFA

The note cautioned that fund allocation, tendering, evaluation of bids, issuing work orders and full project implementation may require an extension beyond December 2025.

It also pointed to the limited number of capable firms in the market, with only 15-20 high-quality engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies currently active – potentially insufficient to deliver 3,000MW in less than six months.

CapEx, OpEx models

Under the new solar programme, government offices will roll out installations via the Capital Expenditure (CapEx) model supported by public funds, while hospitals and educational institutions will operate under the Operational Expenditure (OpEx) model with no upfront cost.

"While the CapEx model allows faster rollout and higher savings, it may face risks from poor coordination, lack of maintenance and rushed developer selection. The OpEx model ensures quality but offers lower savings and may face financing hurdles and risks from load-shedding in rural areas.

"Projects that are small and scattered in rural areas may fail to attract companies to invest under the OpEx model," said Shafiqul listing the pros and cons of both models.

The note also highlighted the risk of soiling (the accumulation of dust, dirt, and other contaminants on the surface of solar panels, hampering power output), which could significantly reduce solar energy yield, and urged the government to instruct public offices to create a fund from monthly savings under CapEx projects and enter long-term maintenance contracts with service providers.

Utilities should also address load-shedding in rural areas, as resulting solar generation loss could pose risks under the OpEx model, the note said.

In the CapEx model, users purchase and install solar panels at their own expense. The entire system, including design and implementation, is managed by a solar installation company, while users bear the total project cost upfront.

In contrast, the OpEx model allows consumers to avoid upfront costs. A third-party company installs, maintains, and operates the solar panels, while users pay for electricity at a rate lower than the conventional grid rate. This rate is fixed through a power purchase agreement for a set number of years.

Regional lessons

The briefing note suggested that Bangladesh can learn from neighbouring countries, such as India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which have a higher share of renewable energy in their power mix, ranging from 47% to 63%.

Pakistan's rooftop solar success demonstrates how push factors such as energy supply shortages and high tariffs can drive adoption. In Sri Lanka, the government overcame financing barriers with multilateral support and later provided funds for rooftop solar on public buildings, according to the note.

India's rooftop solar capacity of more than 18 gigawatts in May 2025 is attributed to consistent policy and regulatory support, the IEEFA note added.

Shafiqul emphasised that, as Bangladesh's rooftop solar sector is still nascent, capacity development of key stakeholders and government agencies will be essential.

He also called for an independent monitoring mechanism to ensure the smooth operation of projects.