Citizen's Platform flags feasibility gaps in BNP's key election pledges

A policy assessment by the Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh has raised concerns over the feasibility of several major pledges in the election manifesto of the BNP, stating that while some targets are attainable with discipline, others would require extraordinary fiscal and institutional effort.

In its review of selected commitments, the platform drew a line between pledges that could be implemented under current macroeconomic conditions and those it described as highly ambitious and contingent on major structural reforms.

Achievable targets

The assessment said the goal of reaching a $1 trillion GDP by 2034 is achievable, provided the economy sustains around 6% real GDP growth annually, alongside stable inflation and moderate currency depreciation.

With nominal GDP estimated at around $462 billion in FY25, the target would require steady acceleration in growth rather than a sharp, immediate surge.

Similarly, the proposed rural family card programme, which would provide Tk2,000–2,500 in monthly support to five million families, was described as fiscally manageable.

The estimated annual cost of Tk9,600-Tk12,000 crore would amount to roughly 0.15–0.2% of GDP. However, the platform cautioned that effective targeting would be critical to prevent leakage and avoid unnecessary fiscal pressure.

Highly ambitious commitments

Other pledges, however, were described as highly ambitious.

Raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15% by 2035 would require annual improvements of more than one percentage point, a pace the country has historically struggled to achieve. The current tax-to-GDP ratio remains below 7%.

The target of increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) to 2.5% of GDP would require inflows to expand by around 50% annually in the coming years if the 2031 timeline is to be met, a substantial leap from present levels.

Plans to raise power generation capacity to 35,000 MW by 2030 would require adding more than 7,000 MW within five years, alongside securing reliable domestic fuel supplies, particularly natural gas.

The platform also noted that allocating 5% of GDP each to health and education would necessitate sustained fiscal expansion over multiple years.

Current budgetary allocations remain well below those thresholds, and implementation capacity remains a concern.

Returning depositors' money from liquidated Islamic banks could impose significant fiscal costs, potentially requiring tens of thousands of crores annually, depending on the repayment framework, the platform said.

Sequencing and prioritisation

The assessment suggested that the proposed "one teacher, one tab" initiative, though relatively modest in cost compared to other pledges, should not be prioritised ahead of macroeconomic stabilisation and core structural reforms.

Overall, the platform emphasised that manifesto implementation must be carefully sequenced. Large, resource-intensive commitments should not commence before FY27, when fiscal space may improve.

Some pledges, it added, may need recalibration or phased implementation to align with revenue capacity and debt sustainability.