47.6% of voters see Tarique as next PM: Survey
Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman received 22.5% support, while NCP Convener Nahid Islam was named by 2.7% of respondents.
Nearly half of Bangladesh's voters believe BNP chairman Tarique Rahman is the most likely to become the country's next prime minister, according to a latest survey.
The Round 3 findings of the People's Election Pulse Survey (PEPS), released today (30 January) at an event in the capital's BDBL Bhaban, show that 47.6% of respondents identified Tarique Rahman as the probable next head of government.
The survey was conducted by INNOVISION Consulting in collaboration with the Bangladesh Research Analysis and Information Network (BRAIN) and Voice for Reform.
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According to the survey, among other prominent political figures, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman received 22.5% support, while NCP convener Nahid Islam was named by 2.7% of respondents.
However, a sizable segment of the electorate remains uncertain, with 22.2% of respondents saying it is currently impossible to predict who will lead the next government. Another 5% said none of the listed figures would assume the office.
The leadership projection reflects broader electoral preferences, with the BNP-led alliance enjoying the backing of 52.8% of voters, while the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance stands at 31%.
Survey organisers said recent political developments have played a significant role in shaping voter sentiment. The return of Tarique Rahman to the country and the death of former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia were cited as key moments that influenced undecided or previously non-disclosing voters to lean towards the BNP.
The survey found that 52.9% of respondents expect a BNP-led alliance candidate to win in their respective constituency, while the Jamaat-led alliance trails with 20.70% support.
At the same time, voter certainty appears to be increasing, with 74.4% of respondents saying they have already finalised their party choice – an uptick compared to earlier rounds of the survey.
The Round 3 PEPS survey interviewed 5,147 respondents across all 64 districts using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) between 16 and 27 January.
According to the organisers, a stratified simple random sampling method was applied to ensure balanced representation across gender, age groups – including Gen Z and millennials – and urban and rural areas.
Innovision Consulting, led by Sadruddin Imran and Rubaiyath Sarwar, conducted the survey.
