National polls: Survey shows tight race between BNP, Jamaat
The survey finds BNP backed for experience and governance, while Jamaat draws support for its image of honesty and low corruption
A pre-election public opinion survey indicates a neck-and-neck contest between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.
The survey shows 34.7% of respondents intend to vote for the BNP, while 33.6% favour Jamaat-e-Islami. Support for other parties remains limited with 7.1% for the National Citizen Party (NCP), 3.1% for the Islamic Movement of Bangladesh, and 4.5% for other parties.
Notably, 17% of voters said they are yet to make up their minds.
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The findings were unveiled at a press conference at the National Press Club today (January 12) by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD).
Titled "13th National Parliament Election 2026", the survey was jointly conducted by Projection BD, Jagran Foundation and Narrative.
According to the organisers, the survey was carried out between 21 November and 20 December, covering 22,174 registered voters across 295 constituencies in all 64 districts.
A stratified sampling method was used to ensure geographic, urban-rural and demographic representation, with post-stratification weighting applied based on the 2022 national census.
Using machine-learning projections that factor in the likely preferences of undecided voters, the survey estimates BNP's vote share could rise to 43.2%, while Jamaat-e-Islami's support could reach 40.8%.
BNP draws strength from workers, farmers
The survey suggests BNP's appeal is largely driven by voters' perception of the party's experience and ability to govern.
About 72.1% of BNP supporters cited past administrative experience as the primary reason for their support.
Demographically, BNP performs strongest among voters aged 30–44 (38.4%) and 45–59 (37.4%), with particularly high backing among farmers (42.6%) and workers (40.6%).
Young, educated voters tilt toward Jamaat
Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami draws support mainly on the basis of its image of honesty and lower corruption.
Nearly 44.8% of its supporters cited "less corruption" as the key reason for backing the party, while 40.7% pointed to its "image of honesty".
Jamaat's support is highest among young voters aged 18–29 (33.6%) and among those with postgraduate education, where it commands 37.4% support – the highest among all parties.
The survey also notes Jamaat's strong engagement with young and educated voters through digital and social media platforms.
July uprising shapes NCP support
Support for the National Citizen Party is largely linked to its perceived role in the July uprising, with 36.7% of its supporters citing this factor.
Trust deficit fuels undecided bloc
Among the undecided voters, 30.1% said they do not trust any political party, while 38.6% said they had no clear opinion. The survey describes this group as a potential "game changer" in the election outcome.
The survey characterises the 2026 election as a contest between what it calls a "hierarchy of needs"–represented by BNP's emphasis on experience and economic stability – and a "hierarchy of values", reflected in Jamaat's focus on honesty and justice.
It also notes strong public demand for institutional reform, anti-corruption measures and accountability over the July events.
The press conference was attended by IILD Chairman Dr Mahfuzul Haque, University of London professor Dr Mushtaq Khan, University of Regina associate professor Dr AKM Waresul Karim, BDJobs CEO Dr Muhammad Asadullah, political analyst AKM Fahim Mashrur, Professor Dilara Chowdhury, and Major General (retd) Amsa Amin, among others.
