Into uncharted territory?

Sketch: TBS

A tectonic shift appears to have happened in Bangladesh's political landscape, instantly raising questions about current predictions and permutations about next year's elections. 

The sweeping victory of Jamaat-e-Islami's student front, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, in the Dhaka University students' elections is likely to compel many political analysts to scurry back to their desks to rethink their calculations.  

The rethinking is bound to happen, even though results of Ducsu elections do not necessarily reflect the strength of political parties across the country. For instance in 1972, candidates of Bangladesh Chhatro Union, affiliated to the Communist Party, scored a major victory. But it was the Awami League which remained dominant in national politics. 

Similarly in the late 1970s and early '80s, Chhatra League factions associated with JSD and later BSD were dominant in DU students politics. But their parent organisations struggled in national politics, which was dominated by the BNP. 

But the electoral landscape in 2025 seems to be changing with every passing month, with every period of crisis, and now, with the first Ducsu polls in six years producing a result that would have been unthinkable a year ago. 

'Normal' party Jamaat

What Ducsu results have demonstrated is that a large number of politically-aware young men and women have "normalised" Shibir, which was always treated as a pariah on the DU campus. Jamaat's politics also gains in the process, as it has for long struggled to be seen as a "normal" party. 

Jamaat's legacy of crimes committed in 1971, including the targeted murder of Bangali intellectuals by the Al-Badr forces, have long hung like an albatross around its neck. Their leadership paid a heavy price for it when five senior leaders were hanged and several jailed after being convicted on charges of crimes against humanity between 2013 and 2016. 

That changed last year. The party's active participation in the movement to overthrow the Awami League regime won them a new level of acceptance and significant influence in government. The Ducsu polls of 2025 may have just ignited the process of lifting their burden of guilt. 

With the historic success at Ducsu under their belt, Jamaat will want to press their advantage onto the national stage. Electoral success for Jamaat, which sees the establishment of an Islamic state as its goal, would take Bangladesh into uncharted territory. 

Unknown voters 

While voting patterns in a university students' poll cannot be used to measure a possible national outcome, Ducsu does provide a window, however narrow, to take a glimpse at how a new generation of voters may be looking at parties currently active in the political scene. 

It is most likely that the 30,000 or so people who voted at DUCSU polls, had never had the chance to vote in a competitive national election. It is highly likely that a significant percentage of the more than 126 million voters for the 2026 polls will be in the 18-25 cohort who have never voted. 

According to the 2022 Census, nearly 30% of the population or some 50 million people were in the 15-29 years cohort nationally. 

This creates a new challenge for poll analysts, as there is no credible evidence of voting behaviour of 50 million or more people who are likely to go to the polling centres next year for the first time. It also creates challenges for political parties, as old ideas of "vote banks" may not be applicable any more. 

The Ducsu polls showed that the banning of Bangladesh Chhatra League did not automatically make the BNP's student wing, the Jatiyatabadi Chhatro Dal, the largest party in DU. This raises the question whether, in the public mind, the BNP is still the "natural alternative" to the AL. Or has the BNP's arrogance and legacy of corruption turned people away from them — just as DU students looked away from the JCD? 

Push for PR

It has been a decade and half since Jamaat and BNP tested their electoral strength in a national poll. In the next election, the Awami League is likely to be absent, but it is far from clear how much of their popular support, which reached a dizzying high in the 2008 elections, have remained. 

Jamaat's support base has likely increased in the past decade or so in tandem with Shibir's, but it is far from clear whether they have built up enough strength in individual constituencies to make an impact in a first-past-the-post system. 

Unsurprisingly, Jamaat and their likely electoral allies, the NCP led by former student leaders, may still look at the proportional representation or PR system as their best bet for power — or at least a strong representation in parliament.

In its 54-year history, Bangladesh has had just four elections which can be termed as credible — 1991, June 1996, 2001 and 2008. In these four elections, Jamaat polled, on average, just 7.43% of the votes cast, with a high of 12.13% in 1991 and a low of 4.28% in 2001. 

Movement dividend

Jamaat's biggest share of seats came in 1991 when they won 18 in direct polls which came in the wake of a successful movement to overthrow Hussain Muhammad Ershad. Jamaat played an active role then, and their electoral success can be seen as a "movement dividend".

Jamaat will be hoping to gain a similar "movement dividend" in 2026, but in a much bigger way. 

In 2026, Awami League's absence will create a void, which Jamaat and its ally the NCP will be hoping to fill. A few weeks ago, they might have been contemplating a strong second position. Now, it would not be surprising if they are thinking of an outright victory. 

But first they have to create the impression — through success at localised elections like Ducsu or pure media hype — that they are a viable, winnable alternative to the AL. 

In the past four credible elections, the AL polled, on average, 38.9% of the votes cast, with a high of 48% in 2008, and a low of 30% in 1991. This gives rise to the theory that the AL has a "vote bank" of around 30%. 

But the events of the past decade and half are likely to have eroded that support base. It is also unclear how many in the 18-25 cohort have much love for the AL, even if they are committed to secularism and the legacy of the 1971 liberation war. 

The big question for both BNP and Jamaat would be to guess which way the remnants of the AL support would go. It is possible that in the FPTP system, they could use their vote tactically in individual constituencies to defeat either Jamaat or BNP, depending on which party they see as the bigger threat to their ideals. 

In such a scenario, Jamaat may well see PR as the best system to ensure they leverage their "movement dividend" and Shibir's revival. 

Hostile youth

Under PR, seat distribution in parliament would reflect the parties' share of vote, and thus ensure no vote was wasted. If Jamaat manages to increase its vote share above its previous best showing — which seems likely —  then only PR can ensure that is reflected in the number of seats gained. 

While Jamaat and NCP can be expected to ramp up pressure for elections under PR, it remains to be seen whether the head of the interim government Muhammad Yunus is prepared to risk upsetting the BNP at this late stage.  

Furthermore, PR is an unknown concept for Bangladeshi voters who have traditionally voted for two major parties. In the AL's absence, the BNP remains the only "large" party, at least on paper. 

The BNP has always trailed the AL in overall popular support. In the previous four credible elections, BNP polled, on average, 34.4% of the votes cast, with a high of 41% in 2001 and low of 30.81% in 1991. 

In the changed scenario, BNP would expect to be rewarded for their sufferings at the hand of AL with victory at the polls in February. 

But the mood among the youth suggests that they have become hostile to old parties which ruled the country since independence, and whose leaders and lackeys built personal fortunes through corruption and cronyism.  

The big question is, whether enough voters would put the memory of 1971 and concerns over Jamaat's political Islamism on the back-burner. If that were to happen, then a Jamaat-led alliance with NCP and electoral understanding with other parties at the constituency level, could deliver the kind of results that were unthinkable a year ago.

The writer is former Head, BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor, VOA Bangla. He can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. Follow on X: @Sabir59.