Mamdani seen holding lead over Cuomo in New York City mayoral race: analysts

Highlights:

• Mamdani leads Cuomo in polls, backed by endorsements and small donors
• Cuomo's campaign could gain from Adams' exit, attracting business donors
• Trump's attacks on Mamdani may boost his appeal among New Yorkers

The decision by New York City Mayor Eric Adams to suspend his sputtering reelection bid is unlikely to slow the upstart candidacy of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, political analysts said on Monday.

Mamdani, a 33-year-old Uganda-born state assembly member, has polled well ahead of his main rival, former New York state Governor Andrew Cuomo, with five weeks to go before Election Day, and persistent attacks by President Donald Trump may only serve to burnish Mamdani's image with New Yorkers opposed to the president's policies.

Since he scored a stunning upset in the June primary to become the Democratic Party's standard bearer in the November 4 general election, Mamdani's candidacy has been on a roll, winning endorsements from party holdouts such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and a steady stream of financial backing from small donors.

Adams confirmed weeks of speculation on Sunday by announcing he was suspending his independent bid for a second term, opens new tab. He had decided against seeking the Democratic nomination in June.

His departure creates what is essentially a two-candidate race between Mamdani and Cuomo, a veteran of New York politics attempting to make a comeback after his 2021 resignation as governor amid sexual harassment allegations. Cuomo is running as an independent after his loss in the June Democratic primary.

Mamdani "is well ahead of Cuomo and something would have to dramatically change the narrative of the race for there to be a shift in the polling to suggest Mamdani could lose, and I don't see that happening right now," said Basil Smikle, political analyst and professor at Columbia University's School of Professional Studies.

Mamdani on Monday said he was not interested in commenting on what Adams' departure meant for his campaign.

"A lot of the focus has been on the question of the impact it may have on Election Day, what it means for the horse race," he told reporters at a campaign event in uptown Manhattan. "What it loses sight of is that for New Yorkers who are struggling to afford the most expensive city in the United States of America, nothing has changed."

Before Sunday's news, a Marist University poll showed Mamdani leading with 45% support, compared with around 24% for Cuomo. Adams, who withdrew too late to remove his name from the ballot, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trailed with 9% and 17%, respectively.

While no new polls have been conducted since Adams dropped out, a Marist poll released September 16 asked potential voters to consider that possibility. It showed Mamdani would receive the support of 46% of likely voters compared with 30% for Cuomo and 18% for Sliwa. That suggests the benefits to Cuomo from Adams' departure would help the former governor, but not enough to narrow Mamdani's lead significantly.

TRUMP ATTACKS MAMDANI AGAIN

Adams' bid for reelection had been plagued from the start. Elected during the pandemic, his popularity withered amid a steady drumbeat of corruption allegations involving himself and his associates. He became the first sitting mayor in New York history to be indicted on federal bribery charges.

The mayor pleaded not guilty, but Trump's Justice Department dropped the case, saying it interfered with the mayor's ability to support the president's aggressive deportation agenda. That angered many New Yorkers, who overwhelmingly say they oppose the president's policies.

On Sunday, Trump welcomed the mayor's move, saying it gave Cuomo a "much better chance" by concentrating the anti-Mamdani vote.

On Monday, Trump then reacted with another attack on Mamdani. In a social media post, he said Mamdani "needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won't be getting any of it, so what's the point of voting for him?"

Christina Greer, a political science professor at Fordham University in New York, says such threats may backfire, giving an unintended boost to Mamdani.

"The president makes miscalculations," she said. "The more he tries to meddle in this race, the more it highlights the fact that actually we do want this type of representation because there's such a draconian backlash coming from Washington, DC."

Mamdani maintained his solid edge on Cuomo in fund-raising over the summer, having collected some $15 million versus $9 million for the former governor on the strength of a record number of small donations, according to the most recent data, which included August disclosures.

To be sure, Cuomo's campaign could benefit from Adams' departure if donations pick up again from powerful business interests concerned about Mamdani's progressive agenda, which focuses on affordability issues at the expense of wealthy New Yorkers.

Before the primary, big donors poured millions of dollars into the pro-Cuomo political action committee Fix the City, which operates independently of direct campaign funding.

"We have seen an uptick in interest from donors and supporters over the past 24 hours and will be working to maximize our resources to ensure that Andrew Cuomo is elected in November," said a source familiar with the PAC's planning but unauthorized to speak on the record.