New energy roadmap targets local coal, gas, solar
Under the medium-term strategy spanning 2028-30, the government plans to add 12,940MW of generation capacity to the national grid to accommodate projected peak demand of 20,000–25,000MW.
Highlights:
- Government targets 12,940MW of additional capacity by 2030 to meet rising electricity demand
- Plan includes 10,000MW from solar, 2,940MW from coal-fired projects
- Large-scale solar projects will use PPP models in Sirajganj, Sonagazi and Rampal
- Government targets renewables to provide at least 30% of generation by 2040
- Electricity demand rose 17% year on year to 18,178MW on 14 September
The government has unveiled a comprehensive short-, medium-, and long-term energy roadmap aimed at bolstering national energy security, meeting rapidly growing electricity demand, and mitigating fuel supply vulnerabilities through domestic resource extraction and modern technology.
The policy document, titled "Challenges and future roadmap for Bangladesh's power and energy sector", was presented by the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on 14 September.
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The plan
Under the medium-term strategy spanning 2028-30, the government plans to add 12,940MW of generation capacity to the national grid to accommodate projected peak demand of 20,000–25,000MW. This includes 10,000MW from new solar installations, 2,940MW from coal-fired projects across Barapukuria (300MW), Payra (1,320MW), and Matarbari (1,320MW), alongside modernisation of grid distribution networks and the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS).
Solar on PPP model
Large-scale solar development will rely heavily on public-private partnership (PPP) models in Sirajganj, Sonagazi, and Rampal. Additionally, private entrepreneurs are being engaged under the OPEX model; as of 28 September, 1,400 applicants had collected submission forms. The initiative is backed by initial approval for a $350 million loan from the World Bank, alongside ongoing financing discussions with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
For the immediate 2026–27 period, short-term measures are already being implemented to cover an estimated demand of 20,000MW. Supply allocations comprise 6,000MW each from gas and coal, 4,000MW from liquid fuels, 2,500MW via regional imports, and up to 4,000MW from rooftop solar. To expedite solar adoption, import duties on solar equipment have been slashed from 64% to 1%, advance income tax reduced from 15% to 1%, and the purchase tariff set at Tk 10.50 per unit.
Long-term Objective
Looking ahead to 2031–40, the long-term objective sets a target of securing at least 30% of total generation from renewable sources by 2040, gradual retirement of costly oil-fired generation, integration of small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear technology, and cross-border power purchases to serve demand estimated at 38,000–40,000MW.
Gas supply expansion forms a parallel pillar of the strategy. The roadmap includes plans for a 1,000mmcfd land-based LNG terminal, advanced negotiations for a 600mmcfd FSRU in Kutubdia with a Chinese state enterprise, and the completion of surveys for the 96km Feni–Bakhrabad pipeline. Onshore, 31 of a targeted 150 exploration wells in the first phase have been drilled, with a secondary 150-well campaign planned for 2031–35. Bidding under the "Bangladesh Offshore Model PSC-2026" has also opened to international energy firms.
Despite these targets, energy analysts have raised concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and implementation.
What experts say
Khondaker Golam Moazzem, president of Knowledge Hub Institute Trust, cautioned that the roadmap lacks a rigorous integrated financial analysis and clear sources of funding.
"The financial pressure created by the previous government's flawed policies, irregularities, and corruption could multiply unless the current strategy is properly revised," Moazzem said, noting that heavy reliance on imported LNG exposes the economy to global market volatility. He added that domestic coal development carries high environmental risks and costs, while pointing out that the plan overlooks other alternative renewables such as wind, waste-to-energy, and small hydro.
Shafiqul Alam, lead energy analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), stressed that operational continuity remains paramount.
"Renewables will play a crucial role in the coming years and the government is rightly prioritising the sector," Alam said, highlighting that global financing for coal projects is rapidly contracting. He emphasised that accelerated domestic gas exploration must proceed without disruption to reduce expensive liquid fuel and LNG import dependencies.
Power demand rises 17%
The roadmap said electricity demand is rising rapidly even as the country struggles with fuel shortages to maintain generation. Total electricity demand stood at 15,570MW in September 2025 but rose 17% year on year to an estimated 18,178MW on 14 September.
In September 2025, total electricity generation stood at 15,271MW. Gas-fired plants accounted for the largest share at 5,875MW, followed by coal-fired plants at 4,719MW and liquid-fuel plants, including furnace oil and diesel, at 2,812MW.
For September 2026, total generation is projected at 15,859MW. Gas-fired generation is expected to rise slightly to 5,977MW, while coal-fired generation could fall to 4,363MW.
To address coal shortages and meet higher demand, generation from liquid-fuel plants is planned to increase significantly to 3,791MW.
