Investors seek protection from risk of Fed chief's ouster

Highlights:

• Trump has called for Powell's resignation, lower interest rates
• Erosion of Fed independence could make financial assets more volatile
• Investors diversify portfolios amid Fed leadership uncertainty

President Donald Trump's renewed calls for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's resignation have prompted investors to protect portfolios against the risk of higher inflation, as a central bank more willing to lower interest rates could fuel price rises and make lenders demand higher compensation to hold bonds.

While a Fed chief more friendly to cutting rates could be mixed for equities in the short term, it would translate into a weaker US dollar, increased volatility in the Treasuries market and higher longer-term rates, meaning more expensive borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly railed against the Powell-led Fed for not cutting interest rates, feeding concerns that Trump aims to put the Fed under his thumb.

Even JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned of the unintended consequences of that, saying central bank independence was sacrosanct.

If market participants perceive that Fed independence is eroding, moves in financial assets could be wild, some analysts say. One of the top risks is that investors will sell Treasury bonds, lifting interest rates on longer-term maturities in the US debt market relative to short-term securities.

"If markets believe that a politically-captured Fed will lower rates to stimulate growth regardless of economic consequences, long-term inflation expectations will rise, causing the curve to steepen," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at asset manager Janney Capital Management.

"It's impossible to be confident in the magnitude of the move, but my guess is it'll be large - possibly measured in percent increases in 30-year Treasury yields, not basis points."

The minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting, which were released last week, showed little support for a cut at the central bank's July 29-30 meeting, as most policymakers remain concerned about the inflationary risks that Trump's import tariffs could pose.

Even so, Trump has said Powell's resignation "would be a great thing." The president, who cannot fire the Fed chief over a monetary policy dispute, and his administration have publicly called for Powell's exit or for rates to be cut on multiple occasions this month.

"While short-dated yields could fall in this scenario based on a faster pace of Fed rate cuts moving forward, longer-dated yields would likely recalibrate higher for stickier inflation and rising term premia based on the erosion of institutional trust," said Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income at Truist Advisory Services.

Bond investors are pricing in increased price pressures in the inflation market over the next few years. Breakeven inflation as indicated in the US five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities hit 2.476% late on Monday, a three-month high.

In a recent escalation of criticism of Powell, the White House is probing cost overruns in the renovation of the Fed's historic headquarters in Washington.

The questioning has intensified concerns among market participants over risks that the Trump administration will try to fire Powell for cause, perhaps the only legal path for it to do so. US Treasury 30-year yields on Tuesday topped 5% for the first time since late May, as investors fretted about the country's huge fiscal deficit and assessed the risk of Powell's exit from the central bank.

A Fed spokesperson pointed to Powell's previous statements. The Fed chief, who was appointed by Trump during the president's first term in the White House, has repeatedly said he has no plans to leave his post as head of the US central bank before his term expires on May 15, 2026. Powell's seat on the Fed's Board of Governors extends to January 31, 2028.

The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

"I still see the risks as fairly minimal, but higher than they were a week or two ago," said Matt Orton, head of market strategy at Raymond James Investment Management. Orton still favors a diversification away from Treasuries and into gold, as well as both high-quality value and growth equities. "The risk-reward for me in Treasuries right now just isn't there."

ON THE HUNT

While the odds of Powell being ousted or resigning are viewed as low, analysts see some chance that Trump could nominate someone for the job early to influence monetary policy through a "shadow" Fed chief.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month the Trump administration is focusing now on finding a replacement for Powell this fall.

Morgan Stanley said in a note that the risk of a shadow Fed chief is a less relevant question at this point.

"Until Powell's term is up, though, the bigger risk to our Fed forecast is our economic forecast ... where we remain quite humble," Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's chief global economist, wrote.

Although market participants see the risk of weakening the central bank's independence as low, many investors are increasingly incorporating this prospect into their portfolios.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to those risks in an earnings call on Tuesday, saying: "The independence of the Fed is absolutely critical, and not just for the current Fed chairman, who I respect, Jay Powell, but for the next Fed chairman."

"Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences, absolutely opposite of what you might be hoping for," Dimon added.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring, said the asset manager has been positioning for steeper yield curves, in line with an environment of future rate cuts and growing budget deficits.

"That strategy of positioning for a steeper yield curve over the coming months and quarters seems to make a lot of sense. It's justified economically, the technicals support it, and then the political landscape also," he said.

If stocks could get a boost from lower rates initially, the pressure from higher long-term rates would cast a shadow over them, investors say.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said US equities would "probably be OK, but I think that it would likely continue to accelerate the trend of global investors moving capital away from the US"

"Once investors question the independence of the Fed, it just becomes a less stable monetary environment," Ablin said.