Investors react to Kugler's resignation, firing of BLS commissioner

The Federal Reserve said on Friday that Governor Adriana Kugler was resigning from the central bank effective Aug. 8.

Separately, US President Donald Trump ordered that the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika L. McEntarfer, be fired after data showed employment growth was than expected last month.

COMMENTS:

SAM STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA RESEARCH, ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA

"If the President were to put in a very dovish head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and thereby, in a sense, make the data skewed toward favoring the administration policies, Wall Street would stop looking at that if it felt that it was being manipulated to support the administration's stance."

"It could certainly put the US exceptionalism notion into question. Yeah. One reason that the US is regarded as one of the better places to invest is the accuracy of the data, where the data is not manipulated by the government to satisfy whatever the government is trying to communicate."

PETER ANDERSEN, FOUNDER, ANDERSEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BOSTON

"Every little piece of data, every sentence that anybody from a federal position mentions is analyzed and scrutinized tremendously. That only just adds to tension in the market. I don't think it actually helps investors formulate a path forward."

"So this is news even though she (Adriana) has not been very active, it is still interesting. The timing of these announcements seems to just be almost like the worst."

"It certainly signals that there is going to be some substantial changes going forward, and I don't know how much change the markets can take. There are so many moving parts now that this just adds to the complexity for an investor to try and figure out what the right way is to make money."

JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA

"It was noteworthy that Kuglar was absent and didn't vote this week, and now we know why. Kuglar's resignation allows the President to further shape the FOMC in his own image. It's possible we'll see one of the Kevins get a seat on the board earlier than expected."

"On the labor chief front, it's about time someone was held accountable for inconsistent data releases of such importance. Over the past few years, the variability has been so bad to the point it would be hard to believe any of the data released is accurate. "

STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, CONNECTICUT

"Governor Kugler missed the last meeting for personal reasons, so I have a feeling that one seems like we can take it at face value. It certainly gives an opportunity to the president to appoint someone extremely dovish to replace her."

"But what strikes me as a standalone story is that I find the BLS situation to be troublesome. Yes, it's quite clear that something went amiss at the BLS. I can't recall revisions of this magnitude, but I also think that it's really unprecedented for a president to just fire someone for numbers they don't like without really trying to determine why first. And that's not a good sign."

"It calls into question whether this type of information can be trusted and is unbiased actually going forward. Because if the people collecting the data are subject to the political whims of the president, that can call into question the veracity of that data."

TOM DI GALOMA, MANAGING DIRECTOR, MISCHLER FINANCIAL GROUP, PARK CITY, UTAH

"It seems Adriana Kugler wanted to make a statement with the resignation, that there is too much pressure now on the Fed. The administration has been very clear about wanting lower rates."

"The BLS firing is Trump comparing the lower job creation in recent months to what it used to be during the Biden administration. If you look at the Treasury auctions, they have been very successful, with lower yields and high demand. Dealers are not getting the usual 15% of auctions they used to, they are getting only around 4%, I have never seen this. Maybe banks are buying more Treasuries after the announced SLR changes."

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN

"The BLS has more than 2,000 employees who all are involved in the data collection and analysis. Changing the Commissioner won't change the numbers."

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK

"Obviously, (Adriana's resignation) is a negative, and that'll probably continue to pressure the dollar. That's not a good sign, when someone resigns, unless there is a personal reason, there is always a question mark as to why. So the unknown factor of that usually adds to uncertainties.

"Of course, you had a major revision in the employment numbers so it's a fact that Trump fired the Commissioner of Labour Statistics, basically questioning the accuracy of these numbers because of that huge revision that we had. So, anytime something like this happens, it always raises uncertainties."

CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF US ECONOMIST, NATIXIS ,NEW YORK

"The interim BLS Chief looks to be an accomplished technocrat, which is a great sign. Going forward, should the fidelity of the data be compromised, this would place the markets and Fed in a very precarious position. I would expect the Fed to rely more and more on the anecdotes it collects from the Beige Book. Her (Adriana Kugler's ) term was set to expire in January, so no great change in policy. I have not seen an indication that she is resigning in protest, but the timing is very curious"

JODY CALEMINE, DIRECTOR OF ADVOCACY, AFL-CIO, WASHINGTON, D.C.

"Today was probably the last reliable jobs report we will ever see. This isn't good for anybody looking to see what's going on with the economy, not just for workers but for the business community in general."

"This morning's jobs report was showing what was the first indicators of probably a coming recession…it's clear he fired her (McEntarfer) for issuing a jobs report he just didn't like."

On Kugler: "The Fed board should be independent of the president, that's for sure. He (Trump) is wielding increasingly authoritarian control over different agencies, and clearly he wants to wield that control over the Fed. The markets have kept that impulse in check so far. He's increasingly out of control."

JUAN PEREZ, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON

"The way (the market) is going to interpret (the departures) is in a very dollar-negative way."

"No matter what the economic picture in the United States, the one thing that holds the US dollar strong in the eyes of the world is the authority and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Whenever anything comes to potentially put that into compromise then that's when the US dollar spirals down."

PETER TUZ, PRESIDENT OF CHASE INVESTMENT COUNSEL IN CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA

"There will be an opening for the Trump administration to fill. It's likely he will choose somebody whose views on interest rates match his own. Then Treasury Secretary Bessent wants to have a list of possible replacements for the Fed Chair by the end of the year so, Trump is getting a bigger chance to appoint people whose views match his own."

Regarding Trump's order to fire Erika L. McEntarfe, he said: "I don't like to see a bureaucrat fired just because the data that gets presented doesn't support the administration's policies. We have a president who believes the economy is strong and that interest rates should be cut . I have read nothing that suggests she was not doing a good job or conscientious. It's upsetting. We're killing the messenger here instead of trying to see what the data really says and go from there. I see no evidence that the numbers were ever manipulated. It wouldn't be big news today if it happened a lot. Certainly, it's unusual."

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, BOSTON

"(Trump) didn't seem to be disappointed with the last five jobs reports. It was only today's where this member of the BLS seems to be incompetent, so that stands out as irregular. I think this is clearly something that happens in dictatorships, not in democracies."