The case of missing guns: Will there be more blood before the 2026 polls?

Azizur Rahman Musabbir, a former general secretary of the Swechchhasebak Dal's Dhaka North City unit, was shot dead in a narrow alley near Kazi Nazrul Islam Avenue on 7 January. His companion, Abu Sufian Bepari Masud, was critically injured. 

Earlier, following the announcement of the election schedule, Inqilab Mancha spokesperson Sharif Osman Hadi was shot in Dhaka on 12 December last year. He later succumbed to his injuries.

The operational sophistication of these killings, carried out using firearms, exposes a reality that law enforcement assessments often understate: guns are not only present, but deployable, accessible, and increasingly normalised in political violence. Around 15% of the looted firearms and roughly 30% of the ammunition remain unaccounted for.

This is a warning that the country's arms problem remains unresolved — and that the "victory" claimed by the authorities is still a long way off. 

Unless the government moves beyond episodic crackdowns and confronts the unresolved inventory of missing weapons, Bangladesh risks entering the 2026 polls with an invisible arsenal hovering over its politics.

Rewards, claims and the credibility gap

Bangladesh has a long history of politically linked violence intensifying ahead of national elections. What distinguishes the current phase is not merely the frequency of attacks, but the visibility of firearms in conflicts that were previously dominated by crude weapons or muscle power. 

In recent months, shootings linked to factional disputes, extortion networks and political rivalries have been reported across Dhaka and several district towns.

Following widespread attacks on police stations after the 5 August 2024 uprising, 5,753 firearms and approximately 651,609 rounds of ammunition were looted from police stations, outposts, vehicles, and detention facilities nationwide. 

As of late 2025 and early 2026, 1,362 firearms remain unaccounted for. At the same time, an estimated 250,000 rounds of ammunition are still missing. These weapons range from rifles, sub-machine guns, shotguns, and pistols to gas guns, tear gas launchers, and flare guns.

In response to rising gun violence, the government has leaned heavily on two tools: public reward announcements and high-visibility raids. While these measures generate headlines, their deterrent effect remains questionable.

Multiple incidents involving illegal firearms have occurred in Chattogram, Jashore, Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Pabna, Gazipur, and Dhaka in recent months. Political activists, businesspeople and ordinary citizens have been killed or injured, fueling anxiety among election candidates.

Candidates themselves have voiced concern. A video of BNP candidate and Swechchhasebak Dal central president SM Zilani from Gopalganj-3 went viral after he publicly displayed a bulletproof vest, saying his life was under threat.

On 12 January 2026, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said the government had failed to recover the looted weapons and that the law and order situation had yet to improve to a satisfactory level. He said the party was deeply concerned, describing the situation as a clear failure of the government. 

Mirza Fakhrul noted that the government had been unable to recover the stolen arms and that there was little indication that law and order had significantly improved.

This assessment directly contradicts official narratives. 

The home ministry and police leadership have repeatedly highlighted arms recovery drives, publicised "most-wanted" lists, and announced cash rewards for information on illegal weapons. Home Affairs Adviser Lt General (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury has even suggested that the situation is under control. On 5 December 2025, he stated that there had been no failure on the government's part in recovering illegal weapons.

Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd), president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), said, "The operational capacity of our law enforcement agencies remains at a notably low level. Over the past 16 months, their effectiveness should have been restored, but the government has failed to achieve that. At the same time, a significant portion of the weapons that were lost or looted have still not been recovered. Taken together, these two factors have made the situation even more fragile and will pose a major challenge to ensuring the level of law and order required ahead of the election."

Muhammad Nurul Huda, former inspector general of Bangladesh Police, said, "The missing weapons are indeed a serious and genuine concern as the country moves towards the elections. The overall security situation has yet to fully stabilise, and recent months have already witnessed a number of politically motivated murders involving firearms."

Rewards tend to work when the number of weapons is small and socially isolated. Bangladesh's problem appears structural. Illegal arms are embedded within local power arrangements, where fear, loyalty, and political protection outweigh the incentive of a cash payout. The home adviser's claims of success, therefore, risk sounding premature. 

Each high-profile shooting erodes public confidence and reinforces the perception that enforcement is reactive rather than preventive — and that gun violence may escalate in the days leading up to the election.

What can be done in such a short time?

Elections are ultimately contests of legitimacy. The presence of illegal firearms in the political arena undermines that legitimacy before a single vote is cast. Even if polling day itself remains relatively peaceful, the pre-election period — marked by murders such as those of Hadi or Musabbir — shapes voter behaviour through fear and disengagement.

Muniruzzaman said, "Given the limited time now available, it is unlikely that recovery operations will make substantial progress. Whatever corrective measures can still be taken at this stage must be pursued without delay. The only realistic option at this point is to significantly increase the operational activity of law enforcement agencies, while simultaneously expanding intelligence surveillance to a much higher level than before."

Nurul Huda added, "It is imperative for the authorities to urgently determine which police stations are missing, how many weapons, and under what circumstances those arms went missing. Areas linked to such lapses will require heightened surveillance and stricter oversight. There is also a strong possibility that some of these weapons have been smuggled to other regions, increasing broader security risks. A coordinated, nationwide programme is therefore necessary to trace, recover, and account for the remaining guns."