No deal with Israel without irreversible path to Palestinian state, says Saudi crown prince
Saudi Arabia has made clear that any normalization agreement must include “a credible, irreversible and time-bound path” toward a Palestinian state
Saudi-Israel normalization talks remain complicated, primarily due to disagreements over Palestinian statehood and domestic public opinion in Saudi Arabia, despite US efforts to leverage post-Gaza diplomacy.
The Palestinian issue remains central
Saudi Arabia has made clear that any normalization agreement must include "a credible, irreversible and time-bound path" toward a Palestinian state. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has said he is ready to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, "but only if the agreement secures a clear path for a Palestinian state or a two-state solution."
Former US officials and Arab diplomats, however, remain skeptical that current proposals meet the Saudi bar. The Trump administration's Gaza peace plan includes clauses that aim to establish Palestinian self-determination and a political horizon for coexistence, but critics doubt the language is sufficient, says Axios.
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Israeli positions complicate progress
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a known opponent of the two-state solution, presents a key friction point. US advisers have encouraged Netanyahu to consider the "bigger picture," emphasizing that moving forward with the Trump plan could secure a peace deal with Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu has assigned his confidant Ron Dermer to handle Saudi normalization discussions, confirming to US officials that he will continue working on potential agreements.
Domestic politics in Saudi Arabia
The recent Gaza conflict heightened anti-Israeli sentiment among the Saudi public, increasing the political pressure on MBS. "MBS needs much stronger commitments directly from Israel, accompanied by tangible steps on the ground, in order to successfully sell normalization to the Saudi public," former officials said.
US leverage post-Gaza
US officials are using the end of the Gaza war and subsequent diplomacy to encourage both sides to move forward. Key efforts include:
- Direct presidential engagement: President Trump told MBS that, having ended the Gaza war, he now expects Saudi Arabia to advance normalization with Israel.
- Security assurances: Trump confirmed a US security guarantee for Saudi Arabia, which could serve as a foundation for a future defense pact.
- Advanced weaponry: Trump emphasized that Saudi Arabia will receive F-35 fighter jets comparable to Israel's.
- Path to Palestinian statehood: The Trump Gaza plan offers a pathway to Palestinian self-determination, which the administration presents as meeting Saudi preconditions, though skepticism remains.
The gap between expectations
The fundamental obstacle remains the political gap: Saudi Arabia requires a tangible path toward Palestinian statehood, while Israel, under Netanyahu, resists a two-state solution. The situation has been described as "two gears trying to mesh"—one requiring forward motion toward a specific destination, the other locked in opposition.
Looking ahead
MBS has acknowledged during meetings with Trump that he is ready to work on normalization but reiterated the need for a clear path to a two-state solution. US officials continue to press both sides, though they are uncertain if a breakthrough will be achieved during the crown prince's current visit.
