Iran's IRGC and Basij remain resilient despite US ultimatum after Khamenei’s death

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its paramilitary wing, the Basij, remain resilient following a 2 March 2026 ultimatum from US President Donald Trump, analysts say, despite the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in recent strikes.

Trump issued a direct demand to the IRGC to surrender and receive immunity, warning of "certain death" if they failed to comply. In a message to Iranian forces, Trump said: "To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death," says Al Jazeera.

Despite the ultimatum, sources indicate the call for defection has not prompted widespread defections within the organization. Michael Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defence (DASD) for the Middle East, said: "In Iran, you have the supreme leader, of course, but there are multiple different power centres in the clerical, in the military, in the IRGC, in the intelligence service. They are unlikely to comply with what President Trump has done, and Israel."

The IRGC, an elite force of approximately 190,000 active personnel, with reserves bringing numbers to around 600,000, manages Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Analysts note that its economic influence, including control over contracts in natural resources, infrastructure, telecommunications, and mining, creates a system in which the organization's survival and members' prosperity are intertwined, says Al Jazeera.

The group plays a central role in the so-called "resistance economy," a mechanism designed to circumvent international sanctions. Analysts say its oversight of these operations gives members a vested interest in maintaining the political status quo.

The Basij, a volunteer militia with an estimated 450,000 personnel, operates under the IRGC and is described as "deeply ideological," rooted in the velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist) doctrine. It has historically been used to suppress domestic uprisings, including the 2009 Green Revolution and the 2022-23 Woman, Life, Freedom protests, and has been involved in "martyrdom missions" during the Iran-Iraq war. Analysts note that many Basij members are motivated both by ideology and the "privileges and economic betterment" offered through IRGC affiliation.

Experts suggest Khamenei's death may consolidate IRGC control rather than weaken it. Jonathan Panikoff, Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, stated that a regime change is less likely to lead to democracy than to a "military-controlled state that might offer a new supreme leader as a symbolic token to millions of conservative Iranians, but with power firmly vested in the hands" of the IRGC.

Military officials have indicated an intention to escalate regional conflict, aiming to inflict maximum "pain" on the United States and its Gulf allies. Mulroy said: "Everything that they are saying right now, including recent statements from [Ali] Larijani, is that they intend to escalate this and essentially turn the region into an all-out war, causing as much pain not only to the United States but also against the Gulf countries in the region."

Despite US calls for surrender, the IRGC appears poised to maintain its grip on the state. Analysts say the organization's economic and ideological entrenchment, combined with the Basij's domestic role, makes a transition to a military-controlled state more likely than a shift toward democracy.

"The IRGC and Basij remain the primary forces for countering internal uprisings," the report notes. "Ideological loyalty… continues to bind the IRGC to the protection of the Islamic revolution, making a shift in their fundamental ideology unlikely even after the loss of their longtime leader."

Following the US-Israel strikes, Iran responded with drone and missile attacks against Israel and US allies in the Gulf, underscoring the IRGC's operational resilience. Analysts point out that the organization has previously replaced leaders lost in conflict and continues to control critical sectors of Iran's economy, reinforcing its long-term stability and influence.