US demands Tehran accept defeat; Israel pounds Lebanon

The White House has warned that if Iran does not accept what it describes as a military defeat, it risks a stronger US response, according to Al Jazeera.

Iran has reportedly rejected Washington's 15-point plan to end the war, calling the demands "unreasonable."

Tehran, however, believes its negotiating position has strengthened since the start of the US-Israeli conflict and aims to extract concessions that the US and Gulf nations may not agree to, analysts say. Publicly, Iranian officials have dismissed President Donald Trump's claims of "productive" talks as fake news intended to stabilise oil prices.

Behind the scenes, Egypt, Turkiye, and Pakistan have established indirect communication channels between American and Iranian officials, though experts remain sceptical about prospects for a ceasefire given the stark differences between the sides.

Iran's stance has hardened since 28 February, when US and Israeli attacks killed its then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Washington and Tel Aviv insist that ongoing strikes have "degraded" Iran's military capacity—Pentagon officials claim 90% of Iran's missile capability has been destroyed.

Yet Iran continues to demonstrate precision in its attacks, proving it can still strike at will.

In the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for a fifth of global oil exports, hundreds of vessels remain immobilized. Iran has adopted an "eye for an eye" approach, retaliating for attacks across the region.

Last week, Iranian forces hit Qatar's main gas facility, cutting 17% of its export capacity, following an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars field.

In another incident, two Iranian ballistic missiles targeted southern Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after the US attacked Natanz, wounding over 180 people.

Experts say Iran's goal extends beyond a ceasefire: it seeks a post-war order that restores deterrence and ensures long-term economic and security guarantees. Recent Iranian demands include reparations, firm assurances against future attacks, and a new regulatory framework for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, notes that Tehran is even discussing charging passage fees, using the Strait as leverage. Analysts warn Iran is unlikely to relinquish this advantage without major concessions, especially after temporary economic relief, including the US waiver on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, was granted to ease oil prices.

Washington continues to press Iran on its nuclear programme. Trump has demanded surrender of more than 400 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium, much of which Iranian officials say was buried under rubble from US strikes.

The US has also sought limits on Iran's missile programme and its support for regional armed groups, though sources say Washington now permits Iran to retain 1,000 medium-range missiles.

Any diplomatic breakthrough faces major obstacles due to deep mistrust. Trump launched airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 while negotiations were ongoing and has repeatedly signaled that regime change is a key objective.

Questions also remain over who would represent Iran in any negotiations after US and Israeli strikes killed senior leaders, including Ali Larijani, a key interlocutor with international mediators.