UK forecaster predicts strongest El Niño in living memory
A potentially record-breaking El Niño could reshape global weather patterns, threaten crops and push temperatures higher as the Met Office warns of an event unlike any in recent memory.
The UK Met Office yesterday (21 August) warned that the developing El Niño weather pattern could become the strongest in living memory, with potentially significant effects on weather and agriculture worldwide.
"2026 is going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory and what is probably the largest such event since the 19th century," the Met Office said.
Its latest forecasts indicate that sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific could rise by more than 3°C later this year.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
A typical El Niño causes sea-surface temperatures in the region to rise by 1°C to 2°C, with a 2°C increase considered a major event.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by the periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific as trade winds weaken. It occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and 12 months.
The phenomenon can significantly alter weather patterns around the world and threaten crops by triggering droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events.
"This implies that if the forecast is accurate, and other forecast systems show similar extreme values, then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.
The Met Office also said 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
