3°C warming puts 1.5b older adults in South Asia at risk: Lancet study
The researchers warned that previous studies may have significantly underestimated the number of older adults at risk from extreme heat.
Older adults, aged over 60 years, of Bangladesh, India, China and Pakistan could account for nearly three-quarters of the global population exposed to dangerous heat if global warming reaches 3°C, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
The four countries together account for 1.48 billion people, or 72.6% of the 2.03 billion older adults projected to be exposed to dangerous heat globally, the study found.
Researchers, including scientists from Stanford University and Pennsylvania State University, said older people face greater risks from extreme heat because their bodies are less able to regulate temperature.
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They tend to sweat less, their blood vessels respond more slowly and their hearts work harder under heat stress, making them vulnerable at lower temperatures than previously estimated.
South Asia and the Persian Gulf are expected to be among the worst-affected regions. At 3°C warming, older adults in these areas could experience dangerous heat both day and night for up to three consecutive months, said the researchers.
The study identified Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Niger as particularly vulnerable because of the combination of high heat exposure, widespread poverty and limited access to cooling.
The researchers also warned that previous studies may have significantly underestimated the number of older adults at risk from extreme heat.
Earlier research largely relied on data from healthy young adults to determine temperature and humidity thresholds for heat stress, potentially underestimating risks to older populations by at least twofold, the researchers added.
