Trump's Teflon tested as Epstein saga looms over 2026 campaign

US President Donald Trump was eager to claim victory this week after the record-long US government shutdown ended on his terms. But almost immediately, the White House was forced to battle a familiar bogeyman: Jeffrey Epstein.

A trove of emails released by Democrats in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday reignited questions about Trump's relationship with the disgraced financier and how much the president knew about Epstein's alleged abuse of underage women.

While the White House swiftly dismissed the effort as a Democratic smear campaign, the headline-grabbing messages underscored a potential vulnerability for Trump that could shadow the president and his Republican Party into next year's midterm congressional elections.

Trump has weathered controversies that would have sunk many politicians. But the Epstein saga has proven to be a persistent liability that disrupts Trump's message discipline and complicates his effort to keep his coalition focused on policy rather than scandal.

Some republicans break ranks

Many of Trump's most loyal supporters believe the government is withholding sensitive documents about Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died by suicide in jail in 2019, that would reveal his ties to powerful public figures.

A handful of Republicans have broken ranks to join Democrats seeking a full documents release, drawing a rebuke from Trump, who called them "soft and foolish."

"I think the hope was that it would die down and go away, and that was never going to be the case," said Republican strategist Terry Sullivan, who headed Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign.

"It's an impossible issue to handle effectively," he added. "It's impossible to prove a negative. If he (Trump) didn't know anything, how do you prove it?"

Pia Carusone, a Democratic strategist and partner at political consultancy SKDK, said the specter of Epstein could depress Republican turnout in the 2026 midterm elections if new revelations keep dripping out.

Some Trump supporters for years have fanned conspiracy theories about Epstein's clients and the circumstances of his death. While Trump has not been accused of wrongdoing related to the wealthy financier, he has faced a backlash from supporters over his administration's refusal, citing privacy concerns, to disclose all Epstein-related investigative files.

"The MAGA base has a way of attaching to insider issues and blowing them up," Carusone said. "I think he's very vulnerable on this."

While nine in 10 Republicans say they approve of Trump's performance in the White House overall, just four in 10 say they approve of his handling of the Epstein files, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in October.

The White House said it would not be distracted by the Epstein saga.

"Democrats and the mainstream media are desperately trying to use this hoax as a distraction to talk about anything other than Democrats getting utterly defeated by President Trump in the shutdown fight. These emails prove literally nothing," White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said.

Unity shows cracks

The president demonstrated near-total control over his party during the 43-day government shutdown. Even with this week's Epstein emails, some prominent conservative influencers downplayed messages that suggested Epstein believed Trump "knew about the girls."

The messages also showed Trump disapproved of his behaviour and forced Epstein out of his Mar-a-Lago social club in Florida.

Trump has repeatedly denied any knowledge of Epstein's alleged abuse and sex trafficking of underage girls.

Republican unity has not held around the Epstein issue overall, and Democrats have still managed to cause trouble for Trump.

On the same day the government reopened, a petition supported by all House Democrats and four Republicans got the final signature needed for a vote on a bill to compel the Justice Department to release all files related to Epstein.

High-level Trump aides failed to convince Representative Lauren Boebert to take her name off the Epstein petition, going so far as to meet with her in the Situation Room, a White House space typically used for pressing national security matters.

Republican Representative Nancy Mace, another Trump loyalist, also did not budge in her support for the petition. A source familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity said that when Mace and Trump were unable to connect by phone, she wrote a message to the president that referenced her experience as a sexual assault survivor.

The recalcitrance of Boebert and Mace, members of a Republican congressional conference that has shown almost complete obedience to Trump, suggests the president will have to navigate internal dissent carefully to ensure the Epstein saga does not fracture his party heading into the midterm elections.

After days of declining questions from reporters, Trump broke his silence on Friday night, lamenting how the Epstein affair had distracted from his accomplishments.

"When you talk about the Epstein hoax, what happens is, you're not talking about how well we've done," Trump told journalists aboard Air Force One. "They want to waste people's time, and some of the dumber Republicans like that."

Those comments came just hours after Trump announced that he would ask the Justice Department to investigate Epstein's ties with JPMorgan and prominent Democrats. The US bank said it regrets its past association with Epstein, who was a client between 1998 and 2013, and did not help him commit "heinous acts."

Democratic and Republican strategists said the last few days have illustrated the Epstein scandal's remarkable staying power and its ability to commandeer any news cycle.

The continued attempts by the White House to suppress or deflect news around the saga have had the effect of prolonging the attention paid to it, they said.

"I don't think anyone could argue that they handled it well," veteran Republican strategist Alex Conant said, "because we're still talking about it."