Trump's conflicting statements sow confusion on Iran ceasefire

President Donald Trump's declaration of a two-week ceasefire in the war against Iran has soothed global markets. But a series of conflicting statements and actions since the announcement suggests fundamental differences remain, making the truce even more fragile.

Trump unleashed a flurry of social media posts starting in the early hours of yesterday regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear material, tariffs, sanctions and the negotiating parameters of a long-term peace deal. Several of his messages contained dubious or incomplete claims.

Most crucially, Trump insisted on Tuesday that any ceasefire would depend on the reopening of the strait, which accounts for a fifth of the world's oil supplies. But that waterway remained effectively closed yesterday (8 April).

At the same time, fighting continued with Kuwait's army saying an "intense" barrage of Iranian attack drones caused significant damage to energy, power and water desalination facilities.

Trump's initial post announcing the deal only specified that attacks on Iran should stop, leaving open the question about the other front of the war in Lebanon, where Israeli forces are fighting Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday he insisted the ceasefire not apply to Lebanon, an understanding at odds with that of Iran and mediator Pakistan.

Israel's attacks on Lebanon prompted Tehran to threaten to pull out of the deal if they continued, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Only on Wednesday morning did Trump clarify his stance that Lebanon was not covered. He brushed aside concerns that would blow up the deal, saying in a telephone interview with PBS "that'll get taken care of too. It's alright."

Those were just some of the more glaring contradictions on the morning after the Tuesday evening deal mediated by Pakistan, which came after the president threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization. It showed the perils of Trump's negotiation-by-social media post approach to foreign affairs ahead of talks scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad.

"These two weeks will probably be fraught," said Dennis Ross, former President Bill Clinton's envoy to the Middle East, who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "It's also important to ask questions about what kind of promises have been made on each side."

Investors still saw the developments as a reprieve. US stocks rallied and oil dipped below $95 a barrel in Wednesday trading.

In some ways, the truce mirrors the Trump administration's earlier efforts to secure an end to fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas militants.

That deal, which also involved Netanyahu's forces continuing airstrikes after the ceasefire came into effect similarly captured the world's attention amid hopes for an end to the violence. But like with the current Iran ceasefire, it also left core details and disagreements between long-time enemies to be dealt with at a future date and in war-torn Gaza, where many still live in tents, that approach hobbled progress.

Violence doesn't necessarily mean a fragile peace deal is finished. Additional attacks can occur ahead of and immediately after a ceasefire announcement, as both sides seek last-minute advantages. And truces, including a 2024 deal between Israel and Lebanon can see near-daily violations while still largely holding.

Yet Trump's statements in the wake of the truce have caused additional confusion as to what exactly both sides have agreed to or are negotiating about.

Trump also shifted his stance Wednesday on the points the US and Iran will negotiate over in forthcoming talks. He cast the 15-point US proposal as a basis for talks, and not Tehran's 10-point list that both countries had pointed to as a starting point the night earlier. That list included provisions including Iranian control of Hormuz and the right to uranium enrichment clear red lines for Washington.

Trump and his administration later lashed out at media reporting about Iran's 10-point plan, and Trump on Wednesday insisted the US plan would form the basis for talks. "Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to," he said, though Iran had previously rejected them.

On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters the original Iranian proposal was "fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded it was literally thrown in the garbage" by Trump and US negotiators. "The idea that President Trump would ever accept an Iranian wish-list as a deal is completely absurd," she said.

Just 24 hours after Trump threatened Iran with apocalyptic destruction, he offered to work with Tehran to "remove" its nuclear material and also suggested a joint venture to collect tolls on ships transiting Hormuz. It's far from clear if Tehran, other countries in the region or Asian and European nations that rely on energy shipments from the Persian Gulf would agree to such US plans.

He also insisted Iran had "gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change," even though the country's theocratic leadership structure remains in place.

In an effort to curb Iran's military might, he threatened to impose 50% tariffs on goods from countries supplying it with weaponry. There's one problem: the US Supreme Court's decision knocking down his old tariff regime drastically curbed his ability to quickly apply duties himself.