Myanmar civil war nears a rare opening for talks as diplomacy gains ground

Highlights:

• Umbrella resistance group Scef says it is now committed to negotiated political solution
• Min Aung Hlaing is due in Thailand this week amid push for re-engagement
• Conflict has killed over 100,000 people and displaced millions since 2021 coup

After more than five years of fighting, a rare window for talks over Myanmar's devastating civil war is appearing, driven by a shift on the battlefield where the military has regained ground and mounting regional pressure to engage.

Analysts say the change is most visible in the position of an umbrella body that brings together several major ethnic armed organisations and the shadow government that includes remnants of the last elected administration.

The Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (Scef) said after a meeting last month with Thai and Philippine foreign ministers, who separately also met with Myanmar's military negotiation committee, that it is committed to pursuing a political settlement.

Myanmar's junta chief turned president Min Aung Hlaing has yet to accept the Scef as a negotiating partner, but his visit this week to Thailand, which is pushing for the gradual re-engagement of the regional Asean bloc with its war-torn neighbour, highlights wider efforts for a truce.

"It therefore seems that they have abandoned their previously stated public objective of overthrowing the Tatmadaw," said Morgan Michaels, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to the Scef and the Myanmar military.

"Still, political dialogue between the Tatmadaw and Scef groups may be quite a way off. The more near-term prospect is that we'll witness a movement towards 'talk of talks'."

Open to dialogue

The Scef's objective is to secure civilian supremacy and push Myanmar's military out of any political role, said spokesperson Saw Nimrod.

"That's our final call but for now, we are committed to achieving a negotiated political solution," he told Reuters. "We are open to dialogue and open to political negotiation."

To create conditions for meaningful dialogue, the Scef has called on the military to end attacks on civilians and release all political prisoners.

Myanmar's new government, which took office following an army-engineered election that allowed Min Aung Hlaing to take a civilian role, had also called on armed groups for talks by 31 July.

"Peace is our desire, our greatest wish," Min Aung Hlaing told parliament last week, although a conflict monitor flagged a sharp escalation in military attacks on civilians since the leadership transition.

Military on an upward trajectory

Sparked by a February 2021 coup that deposed a government led by former Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the conflict in Myanmar has so far killed over 100,000 people, displaced millions and devastated the economy.

After a series of setbacks, the military initiated a conscription scheme, secured critical support from key allies such as China and deployed new battlefield tactics to help turn the tide.

Beyond strategic border areas that the military is seeking to retake, armed groups in Myanmar's central Bago and southern Dawei regions have retreated from some areas due to intensive offensives by government troops, two fighters told Reuters.

"The military, which was previously thought to be on the verge of collapse, has not collapsed but has instead managed to survive, both politically and militarily," said Aung Ko Ko, an independent Myanmar analyst.

Diplomatic pressure for negotiations

Some ethnic armed organisations that are part of the Scef are coming under international pressure to negotiate with the Myanmar government, three analysts said.

Those groups, including the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organisation, Chin National Front and Karenni National Progressive Party, did not respond to requests seeking comment.

The Thai government -- which will host Min Aung Hlaing on Thursday and Friday -- has been a key player in pushing for Myanmar's re-engagement with the regional Asean bloc that shunned the leadership in Naypyitaw after the coup for dragging their feet on a peace plan.

For Bangkok, the priority is reducing violence, expanding humanitarian access and containing the conflict's spillover into Thailand, a senior Thai official said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

So far, Naypyitaw has not accepted the Scef as an interlocutor, instead seeking bilateral discussions with individual groups, said Richard Horsey, Senior Adviser for Asia at the International Crisis Group.

"All the conflict parties are in principle ready to hear what the other side has to say, but a peace process requires concessions towards a jointly-agreed outcome of some kind," he said.

"That looks far off for most groups."