Russo-Ukraine War: How an old clash between Nato and USSR lead to Europe's latest conflict with global consequences
Since its formation, Nato and Russia have conducted military exercises near each other's borders, leading to heightened tensions and concerns about a potential military conflict
The conflict between North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and Russia is complex and multifaceted, with roots in history and geopolitical tensions that have been going on since the end of the second world war (WWII). The Russo-Ukraine war, which started in 2014 and escalated after 24 February 2022, is the latest in that long-going grapple; one that has the world suffering the consequences.
Nato was formed in 1949 in response to the perceived threat of Soviet expansionism in the aftermath of WWII. The primary purpose of Nato was to provide collective defense against the Soviet Union and its allies in Europe.
At the time of its formation, many Western European countries were still rebuilding from the devastation of the war and were concerned about the potential for Soviet aggression. The United States, which had emerged as a global superpower after the war, was also concerned about Soviet expansionism and sought to contain Soviet influence in Europe.
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Over the years, Nato has expanded its membership to include 30 member countries and has evolved to address new security challenges, such as terrorism and cyber threats. However, its core mission of providing collective defense against external threats remains unchanged.
Since the end of the Cold War, Nato has expanded to include many former Soviet bloc countries, including the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. This expansion has been viewed as a threat by Russia, which sees it as encroaching on its sphere of influence. Both Nato and Russia have conducted military exercises near each other's borders, leading to heightened tensions and concerns about a potential military conflict.
When the USSR collapsed in 1991, it marked the end of the Cold War and the beginning of a new era in international relations. The newly independent republics of Ukraine and Russia maintained ties.
Ukraine agreed in 1994 to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and dismantle the nuclear weapons in Ukraine left by the USSR. In return, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) agreed in the Budapest Memorandum to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
In 1999, Russia signed the Charter for European Security, which "reaffirm[ed] the inherent right of each and every participating state to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance".
After the Soviet Union collapsed, several former Eastern Bloc countries joined Nato, partly due to regional security threats. Russian leaders claimed Western powers had pledged that Nato would not expand eastward, although this is disputed. At the 2008 Bucharest summit, Ukraine and Georgia sought to join Nato. The response among existing members was divided, with Western European countries concerned about antagonising Russia. Nato ultimately refused to offer Ukraine and Georgia membership but also issued a statement agreeing that "these countries will become members of Nato".
President Vladimir Putin voiced strong opposition to the Nato membership bids, and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia would do everything it could to prevent their admittance.
In November 2013, the then-Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the EU, overruling the Verkhovna Rada and instead choosing closer ties with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. This triggered a wave of pro-EU protests known as Euromaidan, culminating in the removal of Yanukovych in February 2014 and subsequent pro-Russian unrest in eastern and southern parts of Ukraine.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine, and began supporting separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine. The reasons behind Russia's can be traced back to multiple factors. One of the key factors was Ukraine's decision to pursue closer ties with the West, particularly the European Union and Nato, which Russia viewed as a threat to its influence in the region. In March, Russia organized a controversial referendum and annexed Crimea. This was followed by the outbreak of the war in Donbas, which began in April 2014 with the formation of two Russia-backed separatist quasi-states: the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.
Nato's role in the conflict was limited to providing political and military support to Ukraine. Nato condemned Russia's actions and imposed economic sanctions on the country. The alliance also provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine, including training and equipment.
However, Nato did not intervene militarily in the conflict as Ukraine is not a member of the alliance and Nato is not obligated to defend it. Nato's stance on the conflict was to support Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty while promoting a peaceful resolution to the conflict through diplomatic means.
The Minsk agreements signed in September 2014 and February 2015 were a bid to stop the fighting, but ceasefires repeatedly failed. France, Germany, and Ukraine saw Minsk as an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whereas Russia insisted Ukraine should negotiate directly with the two separatist republics.
In 2021, Putin refused offers from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold high-level talks, and the Russian government endorsed an article by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev arguing that it was pointless to deal with Ukraine while it remained a "vassal" of the United States.
In March and April 2021, Russia began a major military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border. A second build-up followed from October 2021 to February 2022, in both Russia and Belarus. During the second build-up, Russia demanded that the US and Nato enter into a legally binding arrangement preventing Ukraine from ever joining Nato, and remove multinational forces from Nato's Eastern European member states.
Russia threatened an unspecified military response if Nato followed an "aggressive line". The demands were widely seen as non-viable; new Nato members in Central Europe had joined the alliance because they preferred the safety and economic opportunities offered by Nato and the EU, and their governments sought protection from Russian irredentism. A formal treaty to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato would contravene the treaty's "open door" policy, despite Nato's unenthusiastic response to Ukrainian requests to join.
On 24 February Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, and said that Russia sought the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine. Putin said he had no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory and that he supported the right of the Ukrainian people to self-determination. He said the purpose of the operation was to "protect the people" in the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbas who he falsely claimed that "for eight years now, [had] been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime".
