A ‘Muslim NATO’ looks to change the game in the Gulf

A few months back, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia engaged the attention of geopolitics watchers around the world by signing a strategic defence pact. Some wondered if this was the first step in the creation of a mutual defence treaty among Muslim states in the region. 

The talk of a "Muslim NATO" is now gaining ground with reports of Türkiye's interest in joining the Saudi-Pakistan pact. Such a tripartite alliance could possibly change the game not just in the Persian Gulf region, but also the eastern Mediterranean, affecting Israel's security as well as that of Iran. 

An alliance of just three countries would not represent an equivalent of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which had 12 members at its inception in 1949; it has since expanded geographically to the east, gaining 20 more members. 

Similarly, a possible Türkiye-Saudi-Pakistan alliance would have the potential to expand. The possibility of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, other Gulf states joining cannot be ruled out. Indeed, voices have been raised in Qatar itself for an expanded alliance. 

"The establishment of a Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish-Egyptian alliance has long been — and remains — an urgent need for us all to safeguard our interests," former Qatari foreign minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber recently posted on social media platform X. 

"How much better it would be if Gulf states were to join this alliance without delay, as it serves their vital interest as smaller nations," he wrote.

Realistically though, a Muslim NATO with the same kind of political cohesion and military structure of the US-European alliance may be a long shot. Alliances between Arab nations have often proved short-lived. Egypt's call for a "joint Arab force" last September in the wake of Israel's failed attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders in Doha mounted to nothing.  

However, a tripartite alliance between one Arab and two non-Arab nations now looks very much on the cards. 

Recent media reports in the US, Türkiye and Israel have confirmed Turkish interest in forming an alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but the nature of Ankara's likely participation is not clear. Türkiye could become the third signatory to the SMDA or Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed on 17 September last year between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Or the three nations could form a new alliance separate from the SMDA. 

Saudi officials have yet to comment on these reports, but Turkish and Pakistani ministers have confirmed that talks are at an advanced stage, and a framework has already been drawn up. 

Formidable firepower

Whatever shape this potential Muslim NATO takes, each of these three nations brings something of significance to the table which, if put together, would give the alliance substance. 

Türkiye is not only the second largest army in NATO after the US, it also boasts a formidable weapons industry. In recent years, Türkiye's strides in the aviation industry, particularly in unmanned vehicles for attack as well as reconnaissance roles, have been noted in defence circles. 

Pakistan, with a population three times the size of Türkiye, has a large, battle-tested military. Its army is twice the size of Türkiye's and its slightly larger air force can boast recent combat experience. 

Crucially, Pakistan is known to have 170 nuclear devices and missile capability. This would provide nuclear deterrence in any potential conflict with either Israel or Iran. 

Saudi Arabia is a financial powerhouse and one of the world's largest producers of oil. It has had mixed results from its military adventure in Yemen, but its air force — with high-end jets in its inventory — is something to be reckoned with. 

But with a population just under 37 million, Riyadh lacks the manpower to turn its financial muscle into military or political clout in the region. The monarchy faces a hostile Iran across the Gulf and it has stopped short of normalising relations with Israel. 

The volatility in the neighbourhood, with shifting alliances, makes Saudi Arabia vulnerable to different kinds of hostile actions, from sabotage to outright aggression. 

The SMDA ensured the Saudis would have the backing of Pakistan's powerful military in the event of a conflict. A formal military alliance with Türkiye would be a major diplomatic coup for Riyadh, given its relations with Ankara have not always been sweet. 

The two countries nearly came to blows a few years back when Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, imposed a blockade on Qatar which prompted Türkiye to send its military to Doha to deter a feared invasion. 

Pakistan's search for identity

The formation of an expanded alliance in west Asia, which may or may not evolve into a Muslim NATO, would represent another milestone in Pakistan's search for security and identity. 

Ever since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has always looked west for strategic partners. And whether for security or economic development, the new state looked towards other Muslim states in the region, such as Türkiye and Iran for partnership. 

It seemed the new rulers in Rawalpindi were determined to look away from its historic neighbourhood in South Asia in search of a new identity. 

Less than 10 years after state formation, Pakistan joined the British-led Baghdad Pact in 1955, designed to deter the Soviet Union. It is possible that Pakistan joined the Pact more to deter its much-larger neighbour India than the USSR. 

The Pact suffered its first set-back in 1958 when a revolution in Baghdad brought the Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party to power. The Baathists took Iraq out of the Pact, and the alliance's headquarters moved to Ankara. 

The alliance, now joined by the US, was renamed the Central Treaty Organisation or CENTO. But the Islamic Revolution in Tehran in 1979 sounded CENTO's death knell as both Iran and Pakistan withdrew. 

Back in 1964, Pakistan teamed up with fellow CENTO members Iran and Türkiye to form an economic bloc called Regional Cooperation for Development or RCD. That too fell victim to the Islamic Revolution, though it was revived in 1985 under a new name — the Economic Cooperation Organisation or ECO. 

Pakistan's search for security partners in the west has been relentless, which it sees as imperative to balance the threat it perceives from India in the east. A formal military alliance with a military-industrial powerhouse would give Islamabad a great deal of operational autonomy with assured supply of hardware. 

The alliance with Saudi Arabia undoubtedly comes with strong financial incentives — there is no reason to believe Pakistan will commit its troops to the Kingdom's defence free of charge. 

United by faith and fate

Although the three nations are united by their Islamic faith, they have divergent domestic philosophies, which may impact their cohesion or sense of purpose if an alliance was to come about. 

While Türkiye is a democracy where the elected civilian authority dominates all strategic decision-making, Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy which loathes Islamist groups often patronised by Ankara. 

Pakistan falls in between, with a quasi-democratic facade, behind which the military wields absolute power over matters of national defence and foreign policy. 

However, there is convergence in geopolitical matters, which may give a tripartite alliance purpose. 

All three countries have traditionally been aligned with western powers, particularly the US, and often see their role as a stabilising force in one of the world's most volatile and economically vital regions. 

In recent months, President Donald Trump's unilateralist style of leadership hammered home the realisation that regional countries could no longer rely on the US. 

As Hamid bin Jassim bin Jaber put it in his X post, a regional military alliance is needed "to strengthen our nations' power in the face of the rapidly changing policies of the Western alliance countries, particularly the United States".

The emergence of a new, Muslim alliance in the middle-east would be another confirmation that the unipolar world, the post-World War II order, is coming to an end. 

Regional stability and security are no longer assured by the strong presence of the US, which appears keen to disengage from the region while ensuring emerging regional security structures are synchronised with US interests. 

The writer is former Head, BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor, VOA Bangla. The writer can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. Follow on X: @Sabir59

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.