Prospect of US-Iran peace in the Gulf hangs in the balance

Is the US-Israeli war on Iran finally coming to an end? Recent statements by officials from both the US and Iran would suggest that this is the case. But given the way the war has ebbed and flowed since being launched by President Donald Trump on 28 February, there are good reasons to be sceptical.

There are likely to be incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, where US naval ships attempt to make the crossing, drawing fire from Iranian forces and triggering American retaliation. The danger is that, at some point, the escalatory steps may cross an imaginary threshold and turn into a full-blown attack and counterattack. But for now, both sides seem committed to maintaining the ceasefire, despite provocations and retaliations.

There have been a number of "near-deal" and "near-breakthrough" situations in recent weeks, with President Trump often declaring the end of the war to be just around the corner. But each time, the pronouncements turned out to be overly optimistic, or merely designed to create an impact in the oil and share markets.

This time, however, the prospects of peace breaking out in the Persian Gulf appear real. Not least because President Trump is scheduled to travel to China on 14 May for his much-anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping. It would be a major distraction if Trump were to turn up in Beijing with his military bogged down in a war that has blocked one of China's main trade routes.

Elusive victory

There is little doubt that the US president is keen to exit the conflict, but he badly needs to declare some sort of plausible "victory" before leaving. He has not found a way to compel the Iranians to agree to such a scenario. Massive destruction, blockades of ports, and threats to "obliterate" everything have not produced the outcome desired by Washington.

Likewise, the Iranians desperately need peace to return so they can undertake the monumental task of rebuilding after US and Israeli bombings caused, according to Tehran's own estimates, at least $270 billion worth of damage. But they need a guarantee of long-term peace without economic sanctions, which can only come about as part of a comprehensive deal with the US.

For Iran, there is no need to achieve some spectacular success in order to declare "victory". For many international observers, Iran has already achieved a stunning strategic success that has left President Trump seriously frustrated. Despite all the human and material losses Iran has suffered, its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz — the gateway to the Persian Gulf — from day one, without interruption, has delivered a strategic victory to Tehran.

Iran's leadership structure not only survived the initial decapitation strikes, but it was also able to absorb the joint US-Israeli onslaught and retaliate with extraordinary effect. The true extent of the damage inflicted by Iran on US military bases in the Gulf region has only recently become clear through reports in The Washington Post. Iran can plausibly claim to have retained a deterrence threat.

Nuclear and Hormuz

Against this backdrop, President Trump has attempted other non-kinetic actions to try to coax Iran into accepting US demands. Just six days after a ceasefire went into effect on 8 April, Trump imposed a military blockade on all Iranian ports. The goal, clearly, was to choke the Iranian economy.

Iran was unimpressed.

Trump appears to have whittled down his goals to two areas. Firstly, the US wants Iran to stop enriching uranium for at least 15 or 20 years, and hand over the 450kg of enriched uranium that Tehran currently has. The US wants Iran to commit to "never" building a nuclear weapon.

This nuclear issue is likely to be the most important and tricky issue during negotiations that could begin in the days ahead. The last time the US and Iran, along with five other countries and the EU, signed a nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA — it took them three years.

The second "must-solve" area is the Iranian stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump probably thought he could secure a quick win if he used the unquestioned might of the US Navy to force open the Strait, allowing some ships stranded on either side of the 22-mile-wide channel to pass through.

Establishing US dominance over the waterway would certainly have snatched away Iran's major strategic gain in this war. But it did not play out that way.

After a couple of container ships claimed to have transited with US Navy assistance, there were some kinetic actions in the Strait. The naval unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have fired on and driven away two US Navy vessels; meanwhile, the US claimed its helicopters had sunk seven IRGC fast boats in the Gulf.

It was clear that ship owners — and insurers — were not swayed by assurances from the US Navy that they would be escorted safely. Hardly any ships came forward. Coupled with that, rumours circulated that Saudi Arabia had refused to allow the US to use its bases or airspace for the purpose of the Hormuz gambit, codenamed Project Freedom.

US power and Iranian resilience

Two days after launching Project Freedom, Trump backtracked and announced a "pause" in the operation to allow serious negotiations to take place. As with the ceasefire, he claimed he was doing so at Pakistan's request. 

Once again, Iran had demonstrated their control of the Strait of Hormuz. But the IRGC has also announced that the Strait would open to traffic, provided ships followed guidelines laid down by Iran. In other words, they are not showing any inclination to give up the control they have gained in the course of this war. 

The way the situation stands, Iran has little option but to sit and wait. It can ill-afford to return to hostilities, nor can it respond to American provocations in such a way that gives the US an excuse to break the ceasefire altogether. This is the price Iran is paying for agreeing to the ceasefire in the first place, which passed the initiative to the US.  

The waiting game will impose a huge economic cost on Iran, as the US will continue with its blockade. But Iran can also afford to show flexibility in both the critical areas - nuclear programme and maritime traffic movement. Iran can still make the compromise without losing face. 

Iran needs the current ceasefire to solidify into a durable peace, with significant relaxation of economic sanctions. They have demonstrated their resilience in the face of an overwhelmingly superior enemy. Now, they are expected to show greater pragmatism and meet Donald Trump halfway.  

For Trump, he still has the option to return to war if negotiations don't produce the desired results. He has amassed enough firepower in the neighbourhood to inflict further severe pain on Iran. A limited ground incursion, utilising the thousands of Marnies and airborne troops deployed to the region, cannot be ruled out.  

But as with the 39 days of the war, overwhelming military force was not enough to deliver an outcome that Trump could call "victory." A second round of bombing, however, more severe, is unlikely to break Iran's resilience and will to resist.  A diplomatic compromise remains the most plausible path to ending this war. 

The writer is a former Head, BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor, VOA Bangla. The writer can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. Follow on X: @Sabir59