Israel's airstrikes aim to break foundations of Khamenei's rule in Iran

Summary

• Israel's campaign is designed to leave Iran vulnerable, weak, isolated
• Netanyahu leaves door open to possibility of regime change in Iran
• Offensive aims to pressure Iran into making deep concessions
• Observers warn that destabilising regime risks causing chaos

Israel's sweeping campaign of airstrikes aims to do more than destroy Iran's nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to shatter the foundations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's government and leave it near collapse, Israeli, Western and regional officials said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into fundamental concessions on permanently abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile programme and its support for militant groups across the region, the sources said.

He also wants to leave Khamenei's government debilitated. The campaign is about "exhausting the regime's ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion," one senior regional official said.

Iran's Islamic government faces an existential crisis unlike anything since the 1979 Revolution - not even the brutal 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, the Middle East's most advanced military, can strike anywhere in Iran with drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad operatives, and cyberwarfare technology.

In recent days, Israel has broadened its targets to include government institutions like the police and state television headquarters in Tehran. Netanyahu's government is planning for at least two weeks of intense airstrikes, according to four government and diplomatic sources, though the pace depends on how long it takes to eliminate Iran's missile stockpiles and launch capacity.

Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy and advisor to several US administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and may be inching toward the negotiating table after the strikes eliminated much of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed top security figures.

"I do think the regime feels vulnerable," said Ross, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he insisted Israel's primary aim is to cripple Iran's nuclear and missile programs, Ross conceded that if the regime were to fall as a consequence, "Israel wouldn't be sorry."

Despite US President Donald Trump's belligerent tone in recent days, he would likely accept if Tehran can offer a credible path to a deal, Ross said.

But, after Tehran offered no concessions during six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with the US, Washington will need firm assurances from Iran that its goals, including the permanent abandonment of enrichment, will be met before it will support a ceasefire.

"I think the cost to them is going to be high," he said.

For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting the 86-year-old Khamenei retreat without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. Strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival and he may choose all-out conflict, they added.

After Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei promised in a televised speech that any US military intervention in Iran would be met with "irreparable damage".

In recent days, Netanyahu has also overtly raised the prospect of regime change, promising Iranians "the day of liberation is coming".

Regional governments are fearful the situation could spiral out of control, pushing Iran - an ethnically diverse nation of 90 million people that straddles the Middle East and Asia - into chaos or unleashing a conflict that could spill across its borders.

"You can't reshape the region through belligerent force," said Anwar Gargash, advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates. "You might resolve some issues, but it will create others."

Iran isolated

Iran's decades-old playbook - waging war from the shadows via its proxies - collapsed under an Israeli offensive following the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Its regional Axis of Resistance crumbled, with Hamas crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon defeated, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ousted by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen on the defensive.

Russia and China - seen as allies of Tehran – have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions.

"Iran isn't just facing Israel," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington DC "It's facing off the United States and European powers."

And while Sunni Arab Gulf states have publicly condemned Israel's strikes, privately leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – longtime US allies - may welcome a weakening of their Shi'ite rival, whose proxies have targeted vital Gulf infrastructure, including oil facilities, analysts say.

Militarily, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the skies over Iran, having largely destroyed its air defences. Much of Iran's stockpile of ballistic weapons is believed to have been damaged by Israeli strikes, and 400-or-so it has fired have mostly been destroyed by Israel's multi-layered aerial defence system.

"When the missiles run out, what's left?," asks Vatanka.

But with the Iranian opposition fragmented and no signs of divisions within the powerful Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which has nearly 250,000 fighters including its Basij militia volunteers, there is scant prospect Iran's ruling elite will collapse easily.

There have been no major protests on the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians profess anger towards Israel for the attacks. Without a ground invasion or domestic uprising, regime change in Iran is a distant prospect, the officials said.

On Tuesday, Trump issued a veiled threat to Khamenei, declaring that US intelligence knows his location and had no intention to kill him "for now".

Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September plunged the Lebanese group into disarray but regional officials and observers warned that killing the ageing Khamenei would not have the same impact.

"Real power now resides with his son, Mojtaba, and the IRGC, which is deeply embedded despite the loss of key commanders," one regional source said. "They remain the regime's spine."

Killing Khamenei, a religious leader to millions of Shi'ites, could cause a major backlash.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer on the Middle East during Trump's first term, said that if the Israeli campaign does foment regime change in Iran, it could result – at least initially – in a more hardline administration.

"What is likely to follow a theocratic Iranian government is not democracy but Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–istan," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think-tank. "Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows."

Israel needs America

The next move belongs to Trump, Ross said, who must decide whether to intervene militarily to try to force Iran's hand.

Israeli officials acknowledge that to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities – which are hidden in secure locations deep underground like the fortified Fordow site outside Tehran – it would need the US to provide its largest bunker-busting bombs.

On the other hand, if Trump declares a ceasefire linked to a nuclear deal with Iran, Netanyahu will not protest provided he can credibly claim that Tehran's threat to Israel has been fundamentally rolled back.

In recent days, Trump has hardened his tone towards Iran, making veiled military threats while leaving open the possibility of negotiations.

"No-one knows what I'm going to do," he told reporters on Wednesday, adding that Iranian officials had reached out about negotiations. "It's a little late."

The message to Iran is clear, Ross said: start serious talks soon, or face a military situation far worse than today's.

The White House referred Reuters to Trump's latest remarks and declined further comment for this story. In an effort to restart negotiations, the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi on Friday in Geneva.

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, said he believed Trump ultimately wanted a diplomatic solution but he was likely to allow Israel more time to pursue its military campaign to give the U.S. more leverage at the negotiating table.

Dubowitz, an Iran expert who has been consulted by the Trump administration on its policy, said Israel's main objective appears to be setting back Iran's nuclear program as many years as possible. Central to that is removing its human capacity by killing nuclear and weapons scientists, and Dubowitz said his team had identified 10 to 12 more who are likely being hunted by Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel's opposition parties – and the public – have rallied behind Netanyahu, giving him leeway to pursue the difficult operation, despite Iranian missiles hitting Israeli soil. Israel is operating 1,500–2,000 km from home, with complex and costly logistical needs.

"This is math," said one Israeli source. "How many missiles they launch. How many we destroy. How long we can keep going."

The Israeli strikes have already killed key members of the so-called "weaponisation group" - those Israel alleges are tasked with turning enriched uranium into an actual bomb – and eroded Iran's ability to produce long-range missiles.

That, Israeli leaders argue, creates the conditions for a US-Iran agreement that addresses Israel's red lines.

Yuli Edelstein, head of the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, and a prominent member of the ruling Likud party, told Reuters that if Washington and key European powers engage diplomatically, apply pressure, and shape a clear exit plan, "they can prevent unnecessary developments in this war."

Dangerous vacuum

If the conflict does escalate, regional officials fear a collapse of Khamenei's government would not lead to democracy but to fragmentation - or worse: a civil war, fuelled by Iran's marginalized minorities - Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baha'is, Baluchis and Christians - could erupt in a dangerous power vacuum.

"And that," a Gulf source warned, "no one is ready for."

The UAE foreign ministry directed Reuters to its statements condemning Israel's strikes against Iran. Saudi Arabia's and Qatar government media office did not respond to a request for comment.

French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that warning at this week's G7 leaders summit, saying forced regime change in Iran would bring chaos. He cited the failures of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the 2011 NATO-backed intervention in Libya as cautionary examples.

Vatanka, of the Middle East Institute, warned that shockwaves from the collapse of the government in Tehran would not stop at Iran's borders.

"A destabilised Iran," he added, "could ignite unrest from Azerbaijan to Pakistan. Its collapse would reverberate across the region, destabilising fragile states and reigniting dormant conflicts."