India suspends Indus Waters Treaty: What it means for Pakistan

India has announced it will suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, placing the landmark agreement in "abeyance" until Pakistan, it claims, credibly renounces cross-border terrorism. 

The decision ends over six decades of water-sharing predictability between the two nuclear-armed neighbours and could reshape regional hydro-politics, reports Dawn. 

Signed with the World Bank's mediation, the treaty had withstood wars and diplomatic breakdowns. It allocated the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—to India, and the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan, with India retaining limited usage rights for hydropower and irrigation on the western rivers under strict regulations.

Although India's existing infrastructure on these rivers lacks the capacity to significantly alter water flows during peak seasons, concerns in Pakistan centre on the erosion of predictability. 

Slight disruptions in water timing—especially during dry seasons—could severely impact agriculture, power generation, and inter-provincial water allocations.

Experts say India's long-term deviation from the treaty framework could lead to major infrastructure developments to exert greater control over water flows. However, such efforts would face technical, political, and financial challenges.

Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Indus Basin for agriculture and electricity, may face growing uncertainty in crop planning and hydropower output. The shrinking Indus Delta and water-sharing tensions between provinces like Punjab and Sindh could worsen.

The treaty had mechanisms for resolving disputes, and while disagreements over dams like Baglihar and Kishanganga were previously settled through arbitration, recent years saw a shift. India invoked Article XII in 2023, calling for renegotiation—something Pakistan rejected. The latest move marks the first time since 1960 that a party has stepped outside the treaty's cooperative process.

Analysts warn that unilateral actions on transboundary rivers not only risk regional instability but could also backfire on India in future negotiations with other riparian states like China.

Despite its imperfections, the treaty had kept the rivers flowing and dialogue open. Without it, mistrust could escalate during every monsoon or dry spell, especially under mounting climate stress.

As the western rivers remain Pakistan's primary water source, observers say continued flow is not just a matter of goodwill—it's a regional necessity.