Explainer: What happens if Black Sea grain corridor deal is not extended?

A deal allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea expires on 18 May, with Kyiv hoping for an extension and Moscow pushing a list of demands in return for its support.

Why is it important?

Ukraine is a major producer of grains and oilseeds and the interruption to its exports at the outbreak of war pushed global food prices to record highs. The current deal, agreed in July some five months after the war started, helped to bring down prices and ease a global food crisis.

Ukraine grain has also played a direct role with 625,000 tonnes or 2.1% of the supplies shipped through the corridor used by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) as aid to countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen.

What happens if it ends?

Prices for some staple foods would likely rise but the situation is better than in the months after the war started due to improved supplies of grain from other producers such as Russia and Brazil.

Prices for wheat Wv1, the main ingredient in bread, fell to a two-year low earlier this month.

The WFP's chief economist has said the Black Sea pact must be renewed to avoid future spikes in wheat and corn prices.

New WFP Executive Director Cindy McCain said last month that food insecurity remains at unprecedented levels.

What is the state of global food supplies?

Global corn stocks began the 2021/22 season at a six-year low and so Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one of the world's top corn exporters, led to a significant jump in prices.

A sharp increase in exports from Brazil, however, has since helped to boost supplies along with the export of around 15 million tonnes of corn through the corridor.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast global corn stocks by the end of the upcoming 2023/24 season will be at a five-year high.

Global wheat stocks, however, continue to slowly decline despite a record crop in top exporter Russia last summer. The USDA forecasts they will fall to an eight-year low at the end of the 2023/24 season.

What would it mean for the World Food Programme?

The WFP buys several million tonnes of food commodities every year of which about 75% are grains.

In 2021, WFP purchases totalled 4.4 million tonnes with Ukraine its top source, providing 20% of the total.

Ukraine mainly supplies wheat and split peas.

Most of the food goes to Africa along with some countries in Western Asia such as Yemen and so the WFP tends to source most supplies from eastern Europe, which is closer than major producers in North or South America.

The WFP has shipped 625,000 tonnes through the corridor. It would have to look elsewhere if it closed, potentially at a higher cost when a funding shortfall has already forced it to reduce activities in some countries.

What has been exported?

Under the pact to create a safe shipping channel, Ukraine has been able to export more than 30 million tonnes of agricultural products, including 15.2 million tonnes of corn and 8.3 million tonnes of wheat.

Before the conflict, Ukraine was exporting roughly 25 to 30 million tonnes of corn a year, mostly through the Black Sea, and 16 to 21 million tonnes of wheat.

The capacity to ship grain through the Black Sea under the pact has been limited by the inclusion of only three ports.

For a full breakdown of the countries and quantities exported: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements

Why might Russia withdraw from the pact?

Russia has said there will be no extension unless the West removes obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertiliser, including the reconnection of Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the SWIFT payment system.

Other demands include the resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery and parts, lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance, the resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline and the unblocking of assets and the accounts of Russian companies involved in food and fertiliser exports.

Can the corridor operate without Russia?

Ukraine's ports were blocked until the agreement was reached in July last year and it is unclear whether it would be possible to ship grain if Russia withdrew.

Insurance rates, which are already high, would be likely to climb and shipowners could prove reluctant to allow their vessels to enter a war zone without Russia's agreement.

Insurance industry sources say that for now there is no change in cover arrangements although conditions could alter quickly. War risk insurance policies need to be renewed every seven days for ships, costing thousands of dollars.

Is the corridor needed if Ukraine's harvests shrink?

Ukraine's grain exports are forecast to fall in the 2023/24 season after the war meant farmers planted less corn and wheat.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast corn exports will drop to 16.5 million tonnes, down from the prior season's 25.5 million and well below the record 30.3 million shipped in the 2018/19 season when they accounted for 17% of global trade.

Wheat exports are expected to fall to 10 million tonnes, down from the prior season's 15 million and well below a peak of 21 million in 2019/20 that represented 11% of world trade.

Exporting even those lower volumes of grain through the eastern European Union would, however, be logistically difficult and expensive particularly for crops grown in eastern regions of Ukraine that face a long and difficult journey just to reach the border.

Can Ukraine export more grain by land?

Ukraine has been exporting substantial volumes of grain through eastern EU countries since the conflict began. There have, however, been many logistical challenges including different rail gauges.

Another issue is that the flow of Ukraine grain through the eastern EU has caused unrest among farmers in the region who say it has undercut local supplies and been purchased by mills, leaving them without a market for their crops.

The European Union earlier this month set restrictions until June 5 on imports of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seed to ease the excess supply of these grains in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

These banned sales in those five countries although grain can still transit through them on the way to other EU member states or other regions.