Europe lacks plan if Trump pulls Ukraine support

European leaders are showing welcome solidarity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, travelling with him to Washington for high-risk meetings with Donald Trump.

They have reasons to fear the U.S. president will try to push territorial concessions on Kyiv that will please Russian leader Vladimir Putin but be unacceptable to Ukraine and compromise the international legal order.

But intent as Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz and their peers are on avoiding a transatlantic clash, Europeans lack a credible plan to counter Russia's assertiveness if the U.S. pulls its support for Ukraine altogether.

The series of meetings in Washington on Monday may at best come up with the outline of a truce deal that could be offered to Russia – a real peace agreement would be months in the making.

Even that is a high hurdle: Putin would have to agree to a ceasefire. Ukraine in return would have to agree that all issues could be on the table – that would include, for example, the statute of Crimea, the territory that Russia annexed back in 2014.

The Russian president would also have to accept that serious incentives be part of a ceasefire deal. Some European powers such as the UK and France are ready to send peacekeeping forces to guarantee its implementation.

But the question remains divisive among Europeans, the two countries would struggle to send enough forces to be effective, and the U.S. is not keen to help police a truce.

If the optimistic scenario of a Washington agreement on the contours of a deal doesn't pan out, Europeans would face the naked truth that they still lack a credible plan to counter Russia's offensive in Ukraine without U.S. help.

The problem is not financial. Europe has ample means to take on the burden of U.S. support to Kyiv. Since Putin's invasion in February 2022, the European Union has financed the Ukrainian government to the tune of $49 billion, against Washington's $30 billion.

And since May this year it has even led the U.S. in military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The military question, on the other hand, is taking on a new urgency as Russia keeps making territorial gains in Ukraine.

The European members of NATO pledged in June to boost their military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. But that is of little help to Kyiv in the short term.

Europeans need to take seriously a scenario where the U.S. washes its hands of the Ukraine war.

That would mean even more military support to Ukraine, but also an independent diplomatic line that may involve renewing direct contact with Moscow.

At some point, Europe has to stop hanging its future on the whims of an unpredictable U.S. president.