Changing geopolitics tests the Quad's strategic purpose

At a time when the future of the four-nation Quad Group looked uncertain largely due to President Donald Trump's flagging interest in it in his second term, the foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan and the US agreed at their meeting in New Delhi on 26 May on joint initiatives in maritime security, and signed pacts covering critical minerals and energy security. The purpose was ostensibly to inject fresh energy into their grouping formed first in 2007.

There were three major takeaways from the foreign ministers' meeting. First is the Indo-Pacific maritime surveillance initiative by envisaging coast guard coordination, improved information-sharing, a common operating picture in the maritime domain and collaboration on a pilot port project in Fiji, which is the first joint project of its kind in the region.

US Secretary Marco Rubio said the rationale behind the proposed pilot port project is in response to insufficient port capacity in the Pacific Islands. However, the common aim of these new initiatives was to support a free and open Indo-Pacific, with an eye on China, which has scaled up its military and logistics presence in the region.

The second is the Quad partners agreeing on a framework for cooperation in the use of critical minerals to strengthen supply chains in mining, processing and recycling to help reduce vulnerabilities and support long-term economic security. Rubio said the minerals framework will guide the Quad on how to strengthen critical minerals supply chains – including in mining and processing – and in critical minerals recycling.

The significance of the framework initiative can be understood if one recalls how China halted shipments of some minerals used in aerospace, defence and semiconductor industries following a diplomatic dispute.

Thirdly, the Quad's new Indo-Pacific Energy Security Initiative expands cooperation on technology, energy resilience and emergency preparedness to support a more stable and secure region.

The Quad countries share concerns about China's growing power. The joint statement issued after the New Delhi meeting said they remained "seriously concerned about the situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea" as well as the "militarisation of disputed land in the South China Sea".

China claims most of the South China Sea and has built military facilities on the disputed land. Several Southeast Asian countries also claim parts of the sea. China and Japan have a separate territorial dispute in the East China Sea. India too has a long-running territorial dispute with China across the Himalayas.

There is a more important reason why the Quad appears adrift. There is a perception that the absence of top leader-level engagement has diluted the Quad's importance.

At their meeting in New Delhi, the Quad foreign ministers made no announcement of a date for a leaders' summit, which has not been held since 2024. Trump's tariff war on India derailed prospects for such a summit last year.

The Quad must evolve from its original objective of containing China. This is underlined by the Trump administration's more conciliatory approach towards China. Trump's transactional diplomacy seems to prefer direct bilateral leverage over multilateral strategic coalitions.

Modi too has signalled a willingness to improve ties with Beijing amid his tensions with Trump. More importantly, India is the only Quad member which does not have a military alliance with the US.