India sought strategic leverage; Bangladesh drew a clear line

If you look at the recent press conference by the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina, it provides a fairly clear indication of their strategic direction. She repeatedly referred to the police and warned of the growing threat of Islamist forces in Bangladesh, while urging India and other countries to remain alert to the situation.

There are two dimensions to this. Domestically, there appears to be an attempt to create instability, which explains the repeated appeals directed at the police and other state actors.

Internationally, the strategy is to project the message that Bangladesh is in a dire situation and is turning into another Pakistan. That narrative is clearly being pushed abroad.

I say this because the fact that the Indian government facilitated the event suggests it has little objection to such messaging about Bangladesh being disseminated internationally. Frankly, this was something many of us anticipated. Unless there had been an unlikely expression of remorse or an acknowledgement that facilitating it had been a mistake, this outcome was always predictable.

So, what is the alternative? The alternative is precisely what was said yesterday. This is not something to be exploited politically; we knew such a statement would come. The fact that the Indian government facilitated the event indicates that it is probably seeking to gain additional bargaining leverage over Bangladesh's current government.

Viewed from that perspective, it amounts to an attempt to pressure the government, influence its priorities, and ultimately shape the decision-making of a sovereign state. From that standpoint, I think the government's response was exactly what it should have been. It sent a clear signal that such conduct is unacceptable.

It is particularly concerning because a neighbouring country continues to say it wants to normalise and improve bilateral relations, yet its actions do not match its rhetoric. That inconsistency is dangerous. Bangladesh's government needed to send a clear message, and I believe it has done so. Overall, I think the response was appropriate.

It is difficult to say whether the process of normalising bilateral relationship has been set back entirely, but it has certainly encountered a setback. We expected normalisation of relations to be based on mutual recognition of each country's interests.

By facilitating Sheikh Hasina's remarks and amplifying them, India appears to be trying to create additional leverage to exert greater influence over the Bangladeshi government's decisions. That is ultimately harmful to bilateral relations.

It risks turning this episode into a trigger point that could become a significant obstacle in relations between the two countries.

Asif M Shahan is a professor at the Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka.