Asia's thermal coal imports continue to rebound, except for India
That compares with 25.67 million tonnes in June and 24.1 million tonnes in July last year.
Asia's thermal coal imports are set to rise for a third consecutive month in July as China, Japan and South Korea increase purchases to meet peak summer electricity demand amid tighter LNG supplies and higher gas prices.
The region, which accounts for about 90% of global seaborne thermal coal demand, is expected to import 73.16 million tonnes in July, up from 70.31 million tonnes in June and 71.04 million tonnes a year earlier, according to commodity analysts Kpler.
Thermal coal is gaining ground as a cheaper alternative to liquefied natural gas for power generation, particularly after the Iran war disrupted shipments from Qatar, which supplies about 20% of global LNG.
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China is leading the increase. Thermal coal arrivals in the world's biggest coal importer are expected to reach 28.14 million tonnes in July, the highest level this year, according to DBX Commodities.
That compares with 25.67 million tonnes in June and 24.1 million tonnes in July last year.
China's stronger imports are being driven mainly by weaker domestic coal production and rising electricity generation rather than competition with LNG in the power sector.
Coal output fell 9.7% year-on-year in June to 380.88 million tonnes after safety inspections were intensified following a deadly mine accident in Shanxi province that killed 82 people in May.
Meanwhile, China's thermal power generation rose 0.5% in June and 2.9% during the first half of the year, official data showed.
Although domestic coal production is expected to recover in the coming months, imports could remain strong as electricity demand is projected to rise further. Total power demand in China is expected to increase by about 5% this year, while renewable energy expansion may not be sufficient to meet the additional requirement.
Japan, Asia's third-largest coal importer, is also increasing purchases. Thermal coal arrivals are expected to reach 10.46 million tonnes in July, up from 7.51 million tonnes in June and the highest level since January.
South Korea is projected to import 8.54 million tonnes, compared with 6.08 million tonnes in June and the highest monthly volume since August last year.
The stronger demand has also pushed up coal prices. Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram reached a four-week high of $132.76 per tonne at Newcastle Port in the week to July 24, according to globalCOAL data.
India, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to fall to 10.88 million tonnes in July from 12.3 million tonnes in June, the lowest level since August last year.
Higher prices are discouraging Indian utilities from buying more despite record electricity demand and tighter domestic supplies. Coal stocks at power plants fell to around 14 days of operation in mid-July, compared with a typical three to four weeks.
A sustained decline in Indonesian coal prices could encourage Indian imports in the coming weeks, but analysts expect a significant recovery in purchases only if prices fall further.
