China's shifting energy mix weakens pillar of global LNG growth

Infographics: TBS

ChinaFor years, China was viewed by liquefied natural gas producers as the key driver of future demand growth, helping to justify billions of dollars in export infrastructure investment from the US Gulf Coast to Qatar.

But China's appetite for the super-chilled fuel is flagging, even as producers prepare a wave of new supply in coming years, potentially undermining the viability of some future projects that depend on long-term import needs from Asia and Europe.

The Iran war has triggered the second global ‌LNG supply shock in four years after Russia's Ukraine invasion in 2022, reinforcing China's drive to prioritise domestic and pipeline gas and renewable energy, relegating imported LNG to a shrinking share of its fuel mix.

"Even after Persian Gulf LNG supply is eventually restored, we expect that heightened energy security concerns in China will result in a more conservative approach towards LNG," said S&P analyst Megan Jenkins.

"This will drive efforts to boost energy self-sufficiency, meaning lower LNG demand compared with our pre-war expectations," she said.

JPMorgan, S&P Global Energy and Wood Mackenzie have cut their projections for China's LNG demand growth in the early 2030s by between 14 million and 22 million tonnes. They now see demand growing by between 19 million and 53 million tonnes from 2025 to the early 2030s.

Top LNG trader Shell's latest outlook has a range of potential outcomes, cutting its low case scenario for imports to peak at 120 million tonnes by 2035 and a high case of near 150 million tons by 2040. This compares with a ⁠2024 outlook projecting imports peaking around 2030-2035 at 146 million tonnes.

Upcoming new capacity

The stakes for global producers are high. The IEA expects around 217 million tonnes of new export capacity by 2030, a more than 40% rise from current levels, led by expansions in the US and Qatar.

The weaker outlook for China's LNG demand erodes the need for up to 10% of that new capacity, which could affect producers' final investment decisions (FIDs) on new projects.

"China's accelerating de-carbonisation and electrification will almost certainly impact LNG FIDs, and lead to cancellations of projects, especially those with long-lead times and high development costs," said Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group.

"However, most US projects expected to come online in the coming years will likely still go ahead and find offtakers, as several Asian and European countries remain LNG import dependent."

The US-China tariff dispute, including Beijing's levy on US LNG, means direct purchase agreements between Chinese buyers and US developers are very unlikely, said Huang Miaoru, Wood Mackenzie's research director for Asia Pacific gas and LNG.

Instead, Chinese buyers are expected to procure from portfolio players who source LNG from various projects.

"While China remains the dominant driver of Asian and global LNG demand through the mid-2030s, the commercial and geopolitical pathway to capturing that demand has become considerably more complex for US project developers," she said.

US LNG exporter Venture Global said it continues to see strong commercial demand in Asia that is continuing to grow.

Cheniere Energy, another major US exporter, declined to comment. QatarEnergy did not respond to a request for comment.

Alternatives to LNG

China's years-long push to diversify its energy sources and boost self-sufficiency, which insulated it ‌from the worst ⁠impacts of the Iran war despite being the world's top energy importer, means it has plenty of alternatives to LNG.

Domestic gas output grew on average at 9.5% annually in the last 25 years, driven by development of unconventional resources including shale gas and coalbed methane.

China is also deepening energy ties with Russia, increasing pipeline gas imports. The Far East pipeline is due to start deliveries in 2027, further curbing incremental LNG demand. The long-planned and larger Power of Siberia 2 project would add another major source of pipeline supply.

"Recent developments have, in our view, accelerated China's acceptance of Power of Siberia 2," JPMorgan analysts said in an email to Reuters. "With Iran exploring new ways to control and monetize the transit via Hormuz, China has even more incentive to reduce LNG imports via that route."

Meanwhile, China's world-leading renewables build-out and continued coal-fired capacity expansion are curbing gas demand growth in the power sector.

Renewable energy poses a "structural ⁠headwind" to LNG use, PetroChina International's global head of LNG and new energies Zhang Yaoyu said at a conference in Doha in February.

"The levelized cost of electricity from solar and wind has come down drastically ... So how do you compete?" he said.

Already, China's LNG imports are on track to fall to between 61 million and 64 million tons this year, a second consecutive annual decline, according to consultancies Rystad Energy, ICIS and S&P.

Last year, China imported 68.4 million tons of LNG, customs data shows, just edging Japan as the world's top importer.

Competition from local production and pipeline gas supply last year drove ⁠down the price at which China would consider buying LNG on the spot market to $8 to $9 per million British thermal units, according to Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei.

That is well below spot prices that climbed as high as $25/mmBtu following Iranian attacks on world No. 2 LNG exporter Qatar's facilities.

In a sign of retreating demand, state energy major Sinopec in March halted its Tianjin LNG import terminal expansion, using the 4 billion yuan ($590 million) in funds to develop domestic gas production instead, the company said in a March statement.

To be sure, surging global ⁠LNG supply could push down prices and stimulate demand in China, where coal-to-gas switching in the industrial sector is expected to drive future demand, but analysts say this depends on supportive government policies.

Eurasia's Gloystein said Beijing will be emboldened by its success in renewables-fuelled electrification and fuel stockpiling to cushion itself from supply disruptions.

"It'll mean that China's oil demand peak will be steeper and its gas demand peak will be sooner than initially expected," he said.