Rohingya repatriation: Better now than never
The rise of China as a global mediator is a ray of hope for Rohingya repatriation, because China is a close ally of both Bangladesh and Myanmar
In an interview with Al-Jazeera last month, Zaw Min Tun, Myanmar's deputy minister of information - in response to whether Myanmar wants to really allow the Rohingyas to return to their homeland - said that the military regime is always ready to accept the Rohingyas (whom they refer Bangalis who came to Rakhine during the British colonial period for cultivation).
Bangladesh and Myanmar signed two formal repatriation agreements in 2017 and 2019, respectively, although the then-ruling NLD party was not inclined towards repatriation progress. According to certain international experts, the small prospect of repatriation had been completely crushed after the military coup in February 2021 that destroyed the semi-democratic government model.
However, the hope for repatriation has come to the forefront after the recent visits of delegations both in Bangladesh and Myanmar and the tripartite talks held in Kunming on April 18, 2023. The latest step for repatriation started when Bangladesh handed over a list of 1,100 Rohingyas in a China-mediated deal. With diplomatic manoeuvres from China and ASEAN, the Junta has, intentionally or through being pressurised, decided to resume the Pilot Repatriation Initiative (PRI), first initiated a few months after the largest Rohingya influx in Bangladesh in August 2017.
Recent developments in repatriation
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After half a decade of the latest military crackdown, diplomatic envoys from China, India, Bangladesh, and 11 other countries were invited in early March to witness the present initiatives for the PRI. If everything goes well, the first batch of "cluster-family repatriation" to Myanmar is going to be started before the monsoon of this year, thanks to the China-mediated deal between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
As a part of the PRI plan, a 27-member team, including 20 Rohingyas, accompanied by Bangladeshi delegations, paid a "go and see" visit on May 5, 2023. The visit to Maungdaw was scheduled to assess preparations from the Myanmar side. Before the go-and-see visit, a 17-member delegation from Myanmar came to Bangladesh for a week-long visit in mid-March, and around 500 Rohingyas from 147 families were finally verified for resuming the long-overdue repatriation.
Motivating factors
International experts are divided in their opinions regarding the real intentions behind the recent move of the Myanmar Junta. Though it is true that there is much to be sceptical of, the initiative of the Junta government should be welcomed. Today or tomorrow, the Rohingyas will have to return to their homeland if we are to find a sustainable solution to the crisis. Amid the countrywide resistance the Junta is facing, they had the optio to avoid the snoring Rohingya crisis given the internal and external dynamics.
From our perspective, we cannot continue feeding the huge number of Rohingyas for an uncertain period; occasionally talking about repatriation being the solution without it actually happening in reality, and in the process intensifying the misery of the "most persecuted refugees" in the world.
The Western countries have been playing a crucial role in providing funds for the Rohingyas in the Joint Response Plan (JRP) through these years. The sanctions against Myanmar for their genocidal atrocities committed against the vulnerable Arakan Muslims, along with the funding support, actually paved the way for the recent development.
Historically, Myanmar has had limited motivation in maintaining relations with the West. In the post-coup scenario, the relationship further deteriorated, and China-Russia support became the only hope for their survival in the global platform.
During the recent visit of the Chinese foreign minister to Myanmar, China reasserted their pledge to support the Junta "no matter how the situation changes". In these circumstances, Myanmar is much more comfortable with Chinese-mediated tripartite talks, than following the UNHCR or ICJ recommendations.
Meanwhile, it is just not possible for the Rohingyas to be able to return to their villages the way it was prior to August 2017. In the violence that ensued and after all these years, the scenario of the villages has already changed. That's why the plan is to first relocate the Rohingyas to the cluster houses in Arakan. Later on, the Rohingyas will be settled in their villages, according to the PRI.
Rohingyas are stacked between the devil and the deep sea and the pilot repatriation program is just a drop in the ocean. However, it should be seen as the start of long-overdue repatriation that will help to build confidence among the Rohingya community for future repatriation in greater numbers.
Another Chinese mediation?
The rise of China as a global mediator is also a ray of hope for Rohingya repatriation. Because China is a close ally of both Bangladesh and Myanmar, a stable relationship between the two countries will substantiate the Chinese goals under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) scheme. The recent Chinese-mediated deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is providing ample thought among international political experts regarding the Chinese sphere of influence all over the world, without spreading military bases.
The pilot project has been facing criticism from the Western community, media and rights groups, over the suitability and sustainability of the project, considering the present political situation in Myanmar, especially in the post-coup scenario.
But one thing that needs to be clarified here is that Arakan was never as peaceful as it is now. The fighting Arakan Army (AA) had already decided to include Rohingya representatives in the local administration back in August 2021. Added to that, the Junta and the AA have been on ceasefire since November last, thanks to Yohei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation. No doubt, despite the conflict in other regions in Myanmar, Arakan is more or less stable to start the repatriation process.
In sum, the PRI, after a bunch of dialogues and agreements, has been providing new hope for the vulnerable Rohingya refugees who have been out of their country over the last six years, or more. Myanmar, Rohingyas and all other stakeholders should understand that a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis is in the interest of all and let's start the long-awaited repatriation this time.
Dr Shafik A Rahman is a Postdoctoral Fellow in International Relations of Southeast Asia at the National University of Singapore. He completed his graduation in International Relations from Dhaka University. Then, he pursued post-graduation and Ph. D. in Politics and International relations from Queen Mary University of London, UK.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
