Does the fall of Kabul herald the end of US interventionism?

As soon as the first trickle of Taliban soldiers emerged in the streets of Kabul, it became abundantly clear that the US had lost the longest war in its history. 

Afghanistan had been the focal point of the War on Terror since the attack on 9/11. Even though the invasion of Iraq and Syria take up most of the popular imagination, the two-decade spanning war in Afghanistan has cost the country countless human lives and almost $2 trillion making it more costly than WW1. 

A lot is at stake in this tiny, landlocked country. Afghanistan is the original birthplace of Al-Qaeda. It is the country where Osama Bin Laden planned his global Jihad under the protection of the previous Taliban government. 

The goal of the invasion was to eradicate this haven for religious extremism and install a compliant governance structure to prevent the further spread of radicalism. Even though the initial invasion took less than a year to dismantle the central government, the fighting never really stopped and the exit strategy became increasingly complicated. 

In February 2020, the US negotiated a treaty with the Taliban which stated that the Taliban would stop Al-Qaeda operations in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal. 

According to a UN report published in July, the organisation was already present in 15 provinces and operated under Taliban protection in Kandahar, Helmand, and Nimruz. 

Pulling out from such a situation only a few weeks before the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks is counter-intuitive. So why did the incumbent global hegemon do it? 

The war generation 

Most American millennials were between the ages of five and 20 when the terrorist attacks on September 11 occurred. These people also had to join the workforce at the height of the 2008 economic depression. 

Consequently, they had to witness their country's inability to take care of its citizens even though it was embroiled in unending expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
 
This sentiment has been pertinent ever since the election of Barack Obama. Even though George W Bush enjoyed a wave of popular support during the onset of the Iraq war, his acceptance rate quickly diminished as the death toll began to mount. It eventually came down to 25% in 2008. 

Consequently, his allies in the Republican establishment also became unpopular, prompting Obama's astonishing victory. 

Barack Obama, indeed, pulled troops back from Iraq in 2011. Even though he increased military presence in Afghanistan simultaneously, he promised to ensure the complete troop withdrawal by 2016. 

But none of these efforts were fruitful as troops had to be sent to Iraq and later Syria to combat ISIS. On top of that, the Taliban resurgence kept the soldiers in Afghanistan tied up. 

President Biden's decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 demonstrates the country's unwillingness to directly participate in wars and occupations in the future. Photo: Reuters

Dismantling Reagan's stool

The election of Ronald Regan may be one of the most important events in recent history. His presidency has been so consequential that it has been labelled as the 'Reagan Revolution'. 

His victory over Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale was achieved by pulling different threads of American conservatism together. Reagan himself coined the term: 'Three legged stool' to symbolise the coalition between religious conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and interventionists. 

Even though America was pretty interventionist from the beginning of the Cold War under the Truman Doctrine, Reagan's strong anti-communist rhetoric made the war hawks a mainstay, not only of the Republican Party but of the government structure itself. 

His successor, George H W Bush led the US to its first-ever war after Vietnam when he decided to intervene in the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. 

Bill Clinton did not have to start any new war as the primary enemy of the US since the end of WW2, the Soviet Union was dissolved but he did bomb several Iraqi facilities for housing alleged weapons of mass destruction. 

But after the attacks on 9/11, the war hawks found another target fit for their scorn: radical Muslim fundamentalists. The interminable wars of the subsequent administrations became the focal point of politics and domestic issues took the backseat. 

But this only created further frustration among average Americans, who had to pay taxes and send their sons to the military so that their government could continue to wage war. 

Ever the populist, Donald Trump rightly addressed and used this frustration. He promised to withdraw troops from every theatre and reduce the country's contribution to NATO during his first election campaign. 

Even though his declarations alienated the interventionists in the Republican establishment, he never lacked popularity among the conservative audience. He also capitalised on the untapped potential of the extreme right-wing of American politics and integrated them into the mainstream, creating a voter base powerful enough to get elected. 

To his credit, Trump did keep his promises in this regard. He steadily pulled back troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. 

In 2019, he even abandoned the US's Kurdish allies to a Turkish offensive and withdrew soldiers from the Syria-Turkey border, a move that was also labelled as a disaster but did not have any significant repercussions in domestic politics. 

By the end of his presidency, Afghanistan and Iraq both housed only 2,500 US soldiers. 

Troubles at home and abroad 

The election that brought Biden to power also displayed the dysfunction in the American socio-political system. Growing domestic right-wing extremism had even threatened the transition of power. 

On the other hand, the country also watched enormous protests after the killing of George Floyd and calls to address police brutality and systemic racism. 

Other important issues like extreme income inequality, mounting student loan, healthcare cost, and climate change also need the administration's attention. 

Multiple criminal investigations are also in place against Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans like Matt Gaetz and Rudy Giuliani. 

This uncharacteristic instability coupled with the pandemic and the unpopularity of foreign interventions has made troop withdrawal a necessity. 

China's growing power and the relation between Beijing and Moscow is also another cause for concern for the US. The administration has already singled out China as the biggest geopolitical threat to the US. 

As a result, the country may tread lightly and carefully so as not to confront China or its allies openly. The world is no longer the US's oyster. 

The withdrawal from Afghanistan against so many odds demonstrates the priorities of this administration. It also shows a larger pattern in US foreign policy, a pattern of ending direct participation in wars and occupations. 

The US will likely continue to support its many allies with weapons and infrastructure. But the days of 'boots on the ground' of intervention are probably coming to an end for the country.

Readus Salehen Jawad is an undergraduate student at the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.