Can Trump make Gianni Infantino the next U.N. Secretary-General?

The suggestion came after the United Nations selection and appointment process for the next secretary-general had already opened formally and official candidates were in the race. Whether serious or rhetorical, it drew attention to one of the curious questions of global diplomacy: Who actually chooses the world's top diplomat?

The answer is apparently simple. Since the United Nations was founded in 1945, only nine people have served as secretary-general, and every one has been a man. Yet Article 97 of the U.N. Charter offers remarkably little guidance on how the office is filled. It states that the secretary-general is appointed by the General Assembly on the recommendation of the Security Council. No further explanation is given.

The Charter's inadequacy gives decisive influence to the Security Council's five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Any one of them can block a candidate without public explanation. Once the Security Council agrees on a single name, the General Assembly appoints the next secretary-general.

Reforms adopted in 2015 and first used during the 2016 selection sought to make the process more transparent. The presidents of the General Assembly and the Security Council now jointly invite nominations from member states, and every candidate's curriculum vitae and vision statement are published.

Candidates also participate in informal public dialogues with governments and civil society. The sessions are also broadcast online. The official U.N. selection portal contains the current candidates, their vision statements and updates on the process. In fact, the reforms did not change the part that determines the outcome.

The real contest begins behind closed doors. The Security Council conducts informal straw polls in which members mark each candidate as "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion." Later rounds distinguish between the votes of permanent and elected members, revealing whether a permanent member is prepared to exercise its veto. By the time the General Assembly votes, the decisive political bargaining has already taken place.

For eight decades, the United Nations has encouraged governments to expand women's participation in political leadership and has measured progress accordingly. To the contrary, the organisation has never appointed a woman as secretary-general. U.S. President Donald Trump wants FIFA President Gianni Infantino to be the next U.N. secretary-general, a suggestion that has drawn attention from the world press. According to reports, Trump sees Infantino as someone widely respected around the world and believes he has a rare ability to bring people together.

Among the permanent five, China's role has attracted increasing attention as Beijing has expanded its diplomatic influence across the U.N. system and sought greater representation in senior U.N. positions. Like the other veto powers, however, it has not publicly endorsed a candidate. Nevertheless, any successful contender will ultimately need the confidence of all five permanent members.

The permanent members disagree on sanctions, sovereignty, human rights and institutional reform. They do, however, share a reluctance to appoint a secretary-general who could become a political liability. The winner may not be the boldest reformer or the General Assembly's favourite. Ultimately, it is the candidate who can secure the support of the permanent members while remaining acceptable to the U.N. membership.

The experience of Boutros Boutros-Ghali illustrates a particular point. After serving his first term from 1992 to 1996, he sought a second term with broad support in the Security Council. The United States opposed his reappointment, making him the only secretary-general ever denied a second term. Support from the wider membership proved insufficient against the objection of a single permanent member.

Three unwritten conventions further shape the selection. The first is regional rotation. Although it has no basis in the U.N. Charter, it has become an important political expectation. Western Europe has produced four secretaries-general. Asia has produced two, while Africa has also produced two. Latin America and the Caribbean have produced one, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar of Peru.

The second concerns gender. For eight decades, the United Nations has encouraged governments to expand women's participation in political leadership and has measured progress accordingly. To the contrary, the organisation has never appointed a woman as secretary-general. It has never applied that standard to itself. That can no longer be explained by a lack of qualified candidates. Several women sought the office in 2016, and women are again among this year's contenders.

The third convention concerns nationality. No citizen of a permanent member has ever served as secretary-general. The permanent five choose the officeholder, but never from among themselves.

The current field reflects those conventions.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, brings extensive diplomatic experience. Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica heads U.N. Trade and Development.

Michelle Bachelet, the former president of Chile and former U.N. high commissioner for human rights, is the best-known candidate internationally. Although Chile withdrew its nomination, Brazil and Mexico subsequently endorsed her candidacy. Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal, reinforces Africa's claim under regional rotation. María Fernanda Espinosa, Ecuador's former foreign and defence minister and a former president of the General Assembly, also remains in the race. Additional nominations remain possible, although the broad contours of the contest are now clear.

In a world shaped by power rivalries and polarisation, the secretary-general cannot end wars, compel governments to act, or persuade the permanent members to surrender their vetoes.

Notwithstanding, the office provides direction for international diplomacy, defends humanitarian principles, coordinates the U.N. system and gives voice to civilians caught in conflict.

Institutions teach by example. The United Nations asks governments to meet certain standards, and it is judged by whether it meets them itself. Its limits do not make it irrelevant.

Trump's remark appears to challenge a process that usually receives limited public attention. In reality, the next U.N. secretary-general will be chosen much as every predecessor has been: through negotiations among the Security Council's permanent members before receiving the General Assembly's approval.

The selection will determine who leads the United Nations for the next five years and reveal how the world's major powers define leadership in an increasingly divided international order.

Badrul Hassan is a development and humanitarian professional. He can be reached at badrulsocial@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.