Between flood and future: From promises to protection in climate-vulnerable Bangladesh

Research suggests that by 2050, one in every seven people in Bangladesh may be displaced by climate change. Photo: TBS

It has been more than a year since catastrophic floods swept through Bangladesh's south-eastern districts. For millions across Feni, Noakhali, Lakshmipur and beyond, rebuilding their homes and lives after last year's unprecedented disaster is not just a journey of recovery — it is about bracing for the next blow. Because in a changing climate, the next flood is never far away.

Bangladesh's recurring disasters linked to climate change are no longer exceptional; they are becoming the new norm. What were once described as "once-in-a-lifetime" floods now occur every few years. As the climate changes, so too must the global response.

Climate change is altering the rhythms of life in coastal Bangladesh, which were once dominated mainly by cyclones. Now, communities face more persistent challenges. Flash floods and chronic waterlogging are regular threats. Saltwater intrusion and depleting groundwater have made access to safe drinking water increasingly precarious. In many places, just a few hours of heavy rain can flood roads, homes and farmland.

This is no longer simply about managing disasters caused by natural hazards. It is a global failure to protect the most vulnerable from a crisis they did not create. Bangladesh contributes just 0.3 per cent of global carbon emissions, yet ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. That figure is not just a statistic — it is a moral indictment of international inaction.

Recently, I visited Noakhali and Lakshmipur to observe the ongoing flood recovery operations led by the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), supported by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and partners. Guided by the needs identified by affected communities, the BDRCS has already reached more than 302,000 people affected by the 2024 floods. Yet, during my visit, it had been raining for several days, and fresh waterlogging was already occurring. Muddy roads were submerged, and homes and latrines were under threat.

What I witnessed felt like a preview of Bangladesh's climate-challenged future. Research suggests that by 2050, one in every seven people in the country may be displaced by climate change. Rising sea levels alone could swallow approximately 11 per cent of Bangladesh's landmass, forcing up to 18 million people from their homes. 

Climate displacement is already reshaping the demographics of cities. Urban slums are swelling with families driven from the coast by floods, storms and erosion. These families are not just losing their homes — they are losing their livelihoods and their future.

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) warn that, with rising global temperatures, Bangladesh could face catastrophic storm tides up to ten times more frequently than today. Yet despite the evidence, the global response remains fragmented, underfunded and reactive.

Bangladesh is renowned for its strong Early Warning Early Action systems, which save countless lives every year. Local communities are doing everything within their capacity — evacuating, rebuilding, and preparing. In 2024 alone, the IFRC and BDRCS reached more than 1.65 million people with early warning messages. Other agencies are also working hard. Yet how much longer can early warnings alone hold the line, when every year brings more intense cyclones, floods, heatwaves, cold spells, and droughts?

This is not just a climate issue; it is a humanitarian crisis unfolding in slow motion.

And it is not only Bangladesh. Around the world, the climate emergency, compounded by disregard for humanitarian principles, is projected to leave 305 million people in need of lifesaving assistance by 2025. Bangladesh's disaster management budget has been cut this year, even as needs grow, leaving an ever-widening gap.

We must act now — it is time for the international community to step forward proactively. The much-discussed Loss and Damage Fund, championed as a breakthrough for climate-vulnerable countries, cannot exist in name only. While pledges have been made, delivery is painfully slow. For those on the frontline, such delays are deadly.

This fund must be made operational immediately. Direct and flexible financing must reach the grassroots — not just governments or institutions. Locally led solutions must be prioritised. Anything less would be a denial of the fund's stated purpose.

As a humanitarian working alongside affected communities, I see firsthand the difference that dignified, timely support can make. I also see what happens when help arrives too late or fails to meet real needs.

The people bearing the brunt of climate impacts are not passive victims — they are first responders, knowledge-holders and solution-finders. We must stop treating them as beneficiaries and start recognising them as community leaders.

Experience has shown us that ignoring community input leads to failed interventions. Local knowledge matters. Unplanned development, river encroachment, and uncoordinated upstream water management all heighten climate risks. These are political choices with deadly consequences. Major infrastructure projects, particularly politically sensitive dams, must not jeopardise the well-being of downstream communities. Regional diplomacy should prioritise human lives above strategic advantage.

Climate-vulnerable countries like Bangladesh did not create this crisis, yet their people are paying the highest price. The same applies to other climate-vulnerable nations. This global climate inequity must be acknowledged through funding, policy and action — not just words, but tangible commitments. That means:

• Release the loss and damage fund – fast, fair, and with direct access for affected communities.
   
• Invest in adaptation – not just mitigation, and not only after disasters strike, but through proactive long-term strategies to protect lives and livelihoods.
   
• Back local resilience – with sustained, predictable and flexible resources that empower communities to lead their own recovery and preparedness, rather than relying on short-term aid.
   

This is a global problem that demands a global solution. Borders, bureaucracy and politics must not constrain humanitarian action. We need a system that listens to those on the front lines and acts on what they say. The IFRC stands ready, with its unique network of national societies — grounded in local presence and guided by fundamental principles — to ensure no one is left behind.

Let this be the year when global promises finally translate into protection for the most vulnerable. Let this be the moment when we stop preparing only for the next flood — and start building a just and resilient future for all.

Sketch: TBS

Sonakshi Dey is a Programme Coordinator at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Bangladesh Delegation. She can be reached at sonakshi.dey@ifrc.org 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.