From 'one-child policy' to 'one more baby, please': Can China tax its way to more children?

From the outside, China's latest population policies might look like a plot twist in a dystopian drama. After more than three decades of making contraceptives cheap under the One-child Policy, Beijing has decided that controlling population growth is out of fashion. 

Bite-Sized: Why did China increase the price of condoms?

Now condoms and birth control pills are losing their VAT exemption-potentially adding up to 13 percent to the cost-while matchmaking agencies are happily tax-exempt. The message is clear: love may be encouraged, but avoiding pregnancy comes at a price, says Australian Brodcasting Corporation.

China has faced three straight years of population decline, prompting the government to pivot from population control to fertility promotion. 

But the approach is jarring: instead of building supportive infrastructure-like universal childcare, guaranteed parental leave, or consistent preschool access-the government is leaning on tax penalties and moral nudges. International observers note that this strategy puts women and young people in a bind: have babies, or pay more to avoid them.

The health community is particularly concerned. By making contraceptives more expensive, China risks reducing access for low-income groups and young adults-the very populations most in need of affordable birth control. Experts warn that STI prevention could suffer, even as rates of infections rise among 15–24-year-olds.

Beyond economics, China's policy shift signals a broader ideological move. State media emphasizes traditional heterosexual marriage and domestic labor for women, framing reproduction as a national duty. 

This echoes the One-child Policy era, but in reverse: women are now positioned as key resources for reversing population decline, rather than as autonomous decision-makers. Globally, this raises questions about gender equality, reproductive rights, and the limits of state influence over private life.

Meanwhile, observers are noting the irony of the incentives. Families receive an annual allowance of 3,600 yuan ($776) per child until age three-but structural supports like comprehensive childcare, paid parental leave for fathers, and affordable education remain patchy. 

Critics argue that the policy's emphasis on moral messaging and penalties is a shortcut that sidesteps the complex economic and social realities that discourage young people from having children.

From a global standpoint, China's population pivot is a high-stakes experiment that may draw bemusement at the irony, however tt illustrates the tension between state-driven demographic goals and individual freedoms.

Thus the question, can a nation really tax its way to more babies?