Political influence compromised economic estimates – not anymore: Debapriya

Key economic estimates such as inflation, GDP, national income, and export data were distorted by political influence from the previous government; but the situation has changed and those involved in making these estimates should now be able to provide accurate data freely, said eminent economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya.

Talking to reporters at the Planning Commission in the capital today (17 September), Bhattacharya, who also heads the committee for drafting a white paper on the current state of the economy, said, "During the previous government's tenure, national income, export, inflation, and other economic estimates were very weak, with those providing the estimates often pressured or intimidated into compliance."

"Those who previously struggled to provide accurate information due to fear or in duress are now encouraged to do so without hesitation," he said.

The economist also said that the way in which various macroeconomic indicators were calculated in the past will be investigated.

The committee, headed by him, met with officials from 24 ministries at the Planning Commission to discuss investment information, exports, and revenue generation.

The committee also conducted a separate meeting with the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) to review GDP estimates and inflation.

A government official present at the meeting told TBS that representatives from various organisations told the committee that political influence had affected the estimation of various indicators.

During the meeting, representatives from organisations, including the BBS, the Investment Development Board, and the Export Promotion Bureau committed to providing accurate data moving forward.

Following the meetings, Debapriya Bhattacharya said, "Today, we discussed with all individuals and organisations involved in data creation, evaluation and publication. We have listened to their suggestions on how to ensure accurate data in the future."

"In particular, we want to work on the Annual Development Programme, the implementation of the five-year plan, and the reasons behind existing gaps," he said.

He also said all original contract documents, including those for energy, will be scrutinised.

Macroeconomic indicators were frequently shown to be healthy during the tenure of the AL-led government. 

The Bangladesh Bank on 3 July said export figures for the first 10 months of the recently concluded fiscal year were inflated by approximately $10 billion due to multiple entries of export shipments by the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

This led to discussions among economists and business leaders, who said such errors would mean the country's policies and even estimates of economic indicators were flawed.