‘Myanmar war spillover may turn into a national security threat for Bangladesh’

The civil war in Myanmar has turned into an intrastate war now. In the previous phase, there were some ethnic armed groups engaged in the clash. But now, the groups are being backed by the common people. This is a new dimension and the ongoing war will further escalate to a 'people's war' with continuous support from the masses.

As a close neighbour of Myanmar, Bangladesh is going to face some implications of what has been happening in the country. A crucial one is that these types of wars have a spillover effect. Currently, the possibility of an influx of refugees from Myanmar is prevailing. But the grave concern is that the active non-state parties like the Arakan Army will try to use the Myanmar-Bangladesh border for their vested interests. If that happens, it will be a national security threat to Bangladesh.

Moreover, Rohingya repatriation from Bangladesh will be delayed further. Given the presence of new actors who are not very positive at the moment about taking the Rohingya people back, Bangladesh needs a significant change in repatriation diplomacy. 

At present, the dominance of the Myanmar armed force Tatmadaw over Rakhine state has decreased to some extent, but the military still influences the overall Buddhist communities around the country. The ongoing war will compel the force to concentrate more on their supporter base and that will further undermine the importance of Rohingya repatriation from Bangladesh. Bangladesh should take this change into consideration. 

Repatriation will not be possible if Bangladesh bypasses new actors like the Arakan Army. We should consider the characteristics of the Arakan Army, which is dominated by Buddhists. They would give more priority to Buddhists rather than Rohingya people. Bangladesh needs to measure how the Arakan Army is ready to cooperate in Rohingya repatriation. 

However, this is not the right time to demand for a 'formal' meeting between the Bangladesh government and Arakan Army representatives. International laws or institutions do not mandate an independent state like Bangladesh to sit with non-state actors in such situations. Bangladesh could only start 'informal' diplomacy or discussions with the non-state parties and assess the feasibility. 

Bangladesh has been stuck in a complex situation since the beginning of the Rohingya crisis because repatriation efforts were met with a weak response. Now Bangladesh's response process should be aggressive. Measuring the potential of the new actors in crisis minimisation needs to be discussed. 

Historically, the Burmese (Myanmar) army has taken on a strategy of creating different types of tension along the border areas that often impact the neighbouring countries. They employ this strategy so that Myanmar's neighbours like India, China, and Bangladesh consider the Tatmadaw a force to reckon with. For the Bangladesh government, it is now of paramount importance to counter this strategy. Otherwise, the Myanmar-Bangladesh border will turn into a conflict zone.  

The author Shahab Enam Khan is a professor at the Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University