Eight years on, the Rohingya crisis deepens: food aid may run out by December

During the last Ramadan, Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus joined United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres at an iftar gathering with thousands of Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar. On that occasion, Guterres warned of an "unmitigated disaster" arising from what he called "unacceptable" cuts in international funding.   

"I must confess that we are on the verge of a deep humanitarian crisis due to the announced reductions by several countries in their financial assistance. We are facing a dramatic risk—food rations for Rohingya refugees may be reduced to just 40 per cent of what is needed in 2025," he cautioned. 

At the time, the World Food Programme (WFP) estimated that monthly food rations for refugees would be slashed by half to just $6 from $12.50 following the withdrawal of USAID support. Although that immediate catastrophe was narrowly avoided, the impact of funding cuts was deeply felt across the camps, with health, education, WASH, and gender-based violence programmes severely affected.

With conditions in the camps teetering on the edge of desperation, the Rohingyas now face a multifaceted crisis. Numerous projects have closed, leaving locals without jobs and communities deprived of essential services. 

Desperation has gripped refugees, aid workers, and stakeholders alike as the situation in both the camps and the host country worsens. While funding cuts push the Rohingyas to the brink, the Arakan Army's takeover of Rakhine has driven more than 150,000 new refugees towards the Bangladesh border.

And looming over everything is a new fear: the food aid cut that the WFP narrowly averted earlier this year could, in fact, materialise this December. WFP officials informed Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) in Cox's Bazar, that they no longer have the funds to continue supporting food supplies for the Rohingyas.

"They said they can stretch it at most until December," Mizanur Rahman told The Business Standard. "From January, there's virtually no funding left."

At the centre of the crisis on multiple fronts lies the Arakan Army's defeat of Myanmar's military in Rakhine State. This shift, while reshaping the political landscape, has thrown up fresh obstacles for Bangladesh's long-pursued goal of repatriating the refugees.

For years, the sprawling camps in Cox's Bazar have been riven by bloody turf wars between rival Rohingya armed groups. Yet, in a surprising turn, these groups declared a "mission harmony" truce in November 2024, followed by a "unity" rally, according to a recent report by the International Crisis Group. This is a unity against the Arakan Army. 

But this new alignment is hardly a harbinger of peace. Instead, it signals a consolidation of power, with the groups openly recruiting from the refugee population. "Some humanitarian agency officials monitoring recruitment say the number may be as high as 3,000 to 4,000," the ICG report notes.

All these complex developments have placed Bangladesh in a difficult position, as Dhaka's primary objective has always been the peaceful repatriation of the refugees. Yet the situation has only grown more challenging.

The interim government has initiated informal communication with the Arakan Army, but these efforts have so far produced no tangible results. A deep sense of mistrust persists: Bangladeshi agencies struggle to place confidence in the AA, while the latter suspects Dhaka of backing rival insurgents.

Amid these barriers, the prospect of repatriation has become little more than a fading, distant dream.

Caught between the politics of war and abandonment by the international community, more than a million refugees in the camps now face a deepening sense of hopelessness as resources and opportunities dwindle. For many young men, joining an armed group or a criminal gang has become both a coping mechanism and a means of survival, with the lure of financial incentives and the promise—however fragile—of a better future.

Child marriage, too, is on the rise. "There are also growing reports of women and girls marrying members of armed groups, while gender-based violence is increasing as financial pressures fuel frustration within households, with male breadwinners lashing out physically at their partners," the ICG notes. 

"This is an unprecedented situation; it has never happened before. WFP always had some form of commitment in place ahead of the year. This time, there is no such commitment of continuity after November. This has created a precarious situation," Mizanur Rahman said. 

"In terms of education, within UNICEF's coverage area, several thousand teachers have lost their jobs and many learning centres have been closed. Waste management in the camps has faced massive challenges. UNFPA's sexual and reproductive health services have been reduced due to funding shortages, and activities aimed at preventing gender-based violence have also been cut… overall, the situation is very concerning," he added. 

This convergence of new military dynamics in Rakhine and deepening despair in the camps is a recipe for disaster. The prospect of repatriation, already a complex and challenging issue, increasingly seems like a pipedream, as the Bangladesh government struggles to keep the discussion alive. 

"What Bangladesh is doing now feels more like routine procedure than a meaningful effort. There's little chance of it being effective, given the highly volatile internal situation in Myanmar, where various armed groups—particularly in Rakhine State—have taken control," said Dr Nasir Uddin, a refugee expert and professor in the Department of Anthropology at the University of Chittagong. 

"If the government makes a decision with the Myanmar junta regarding repatriation, the reality is that the junta lacks both the capacity and the access to get the Rohingyas back to Rakhine."

He added that the potential for Rohingya repatriation also hinges on how the Arakan Army (AA) treats them. "And we already know the answer to that," he further said. "More than 150,000 Rohingyas were forced to flee to Bangladesh last year alone due to atrocities committed by the AA."

"I don't see any realistic possibility of the Rohingyas being repatriated to Rakhine at this point," he said.

Currently, around 1.5 million Rohingyas reside in Bangladesh. "They won't simply disappear overnight—we must come to terms with that reality," Dr Nasir stated. "We need to consider both temporary and long-term solutions. One such option is third-country resettlement."

He cited the example of a US plan to resettle 100,000 Rohingyas, which ultimately did not materialise. "Bangladesh should actively explore other resettlement opportunities with countries such as Australia, the United Kingdom, and members of the European Union," he suggested.

"Local integration isn't a viable option, given Bangladesh's high population density and the prevalent anti-Rohingya sentiment within society. Voluntary repatriation, likewise, is not currently feasible," he explained.

"We should also think about upskilling Rohingya youths, who currently remain idle, and engaging them in productive works. If possible, we could even explore opportunities to send them abroad as skilled migrant workers," he added.

For Dhaka, the path forward is fraught with difficulty. On the one hand, the government faces a challenging task of navigating the discussion between military Junta and the Arakan Army, which effectively controls the region; on the other hand, the camps are heading towards a future where they may become a permanent source of instability and a potential hotbed for regional conflict.