Ukraine courts global south as war in Black Sea flares

Ukraine and its allies are making their case for Kyiv's peace plan this weekend to more than 40 countries as the war with Russia intensifies with attacks on key shipping routes in the Black Sea.

The negotiations in Saudi Arabia are aimed at building international support for Ukraine's framework for potential peace talks and a lasting deal — prospects that so far seem remote as the war approaches its 18th month.

The conflict has moved into a new phase since Russia axed a grain deal last month, launching attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and prompting a response from Kyiv that's putting at risk commodity routes and key hubs in the Black Sea region.

Kyiv and its backers in the US and Europe are hoping the meetings in Jeddah that started Saturday will help get their messages across to major global players such as Brazil, South Africa, China and India, countering the narratives from Russia. Moscow wasn't invited and denounced the gathering as a "hoax."

"Consolidation of the world is one of the most essential tasks," Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation. "The greater the consolidation of the world for the sake of restoring a just peace is the sooner an end will be put to the bombs and missiles with which Moscow wants to replace the norms of international law."

The talks come as Russia's war on Ukraine increasingly threatens the shipment of raw materials through the Kerch Strait and the Black Sea. Most of Russia's grain exports and a significant share of its oil pass through the shipping lanes, while Moscow sought to cripple further Ukraine's ability to export the cereals.

Drone Attack

Ukraine used a sea drone to pierce the hull of a Russian oil tanker in the strait and followed the attack with a warning that six Russian ports — including commodity hubs Novorossiysk, Tuapse and Taman — will be part of the "war risk area" until further notice. The Russian tanker, which Ukraine said was carrying fuel for Russian troops, was damaged but still afloat on Saturday.

That followed the closure for several hours of the Novorossiysk port in the Black Sea on Friday, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian naval vessel. Russia's Foreign Ministry said the attack on the oil tanker won't go unanswered, and Russian troops launched a barrage of missiles at Ukraine late Saturday afternoon.

Both Ukraine and Russia are significant food exporters, and the war pushed up prices on global markets. Delegations in Jeddah discussed the impact of the war on the most vulnerable countries, according to a senior official from the French foreign ministry.

'Peace Formula'

Zelenskiy wants the Jeddah meeting to pave the way for a summit of leaders backing the 10-point "peace formula" he released last year, Ihor Zhovkva, Zelenskiy's deputy chief of staff focused on foreign affairs, said in an interview this week.

"We can't talk about security in the world or even in our region without taking into account the positions of countries that are global leaders," Zhovkva said. "How can we talk about peace in Ukraine without involving the countries of the Global South?"

So far, key elements of that draft haven't gotten much traction beyond Kyiv's allies, since its demands for a full withdrawal of Russian troops are a nonstarter in Moscow. As a result, the Jeddah meetings aren't expected to yield immediate results, just as a first round of discussions in Copenhagen in June didn't either.

China skipped that round but is sending envoy Li Hui to Jeddah. Ukraine and its allies have called on China to use its strong ties with Moscow to push for a negotiated settlement — and a European source said China's participation in the meeting was active.

Beijing released its own principles for a peace deal earlier this year, but those mediation efforts haven't made much progress given its public backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Still, China's participation reflected Russia's growing isolation, and its envoy didn't repeat any of the Russian arguments at the Saudi meeting, said the senior official from French Foreign Ministry.

The willingness of Saudi Arabia, which has maintained strong ties with Russia since the invasion, to host the meeting suggests Kyiv may be making progress engaging nations beyond its closest allies. The kingdom, which has been seeking to raise its diplomatic profile, aspires to help mediate between Ukraine and Russia.

Zelenskiy's 10-point blueprint calls for a full Russian pullout, as well as the release of all war prisoners and deportees and steps to ensure food and energy security. It would also include security guarantees for Ukraine once the fighting ends and restore security around the occupied nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.

Backed by arms and aid from the US and Europe, Ukraine is pushing ahead with a counteroffensive in an effort to eject Russian forces from its territory. That effort has proved slow going, however, with Moscow's troops dug in behind minefields and defensive lines.

The Kremlin remains convinced it can outlast Kyiv and its backers in what Putin sees as an existential struggle. Russia showcased its continuing influence in the Global South with a summit that drew African leaders to St. Petersburg last week.

US's Sullivan

The US is sending National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Jeddah, underscoring its support for Kyiv's diplomatic efforts.

Zelenskiy has suggested he'd like the negotiations to lead to a peace summit among leaders this fall to rally support for Ukraine's positions, but it's not clear that nations of the Global South are ready to take sides so soon. Until they do, Kyiv's allies may not be willing to back a high-level gathering. The Ukrainian president is expected to head to New York next month to make the case for his peace plan to the annual United Nations General Assembly.

"The first result which we want to achieve in Jeddah is to try to determine acceptable wording for everyone of each of the 10 points in the plan," Zhovkva, Zelenskiy's aide, said. Some nations are cautious about Ukraine's calls for war crimes tribunals, he noted.

Critical for Ukraine is to win international support for its position that no peace deal is possible as long as Russia occupies its territories. That view isn't universally held outside the US and Europe, with many countries publicly refusing to rule out a compromise that would see Russia keep at least some of the land it's taken in the event of a cease-fire.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement.