India weighs scrapping duty on wheat imports to control prices

India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, is considering abolishing an import tax to make buying the grain from overseas more attractive, according to people familiar with the matter.

The government is studying a proposal to scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is confidential. No decision has been made, and there's no certainty the deliberations will lead to one, the people said.

It would be a big move if India were to import wheat. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that his country was ready to "feed the world," but changed course weeks later by restricting wheat exports to protect its own food supplies. Just two weeks ago, India, which dominates global rice trade, banned the export of some varieties to control domestic food costs, sending rice prices in Asia to a three-year high.

A spokesperson for the food ministry didn't respond to a request for comment. The last time India imported a significant amount of wheat was in 2017-18.

Any move to scrap import duty will likely benefit flour millers in southern India, especially those located near coastal areas. It would make it cheaper for them to buy overseas wheat such as from the Black Sea, where Russia is expected to ship record volumes for the second year in a row, and Australia.

While global wheat prices have dropped 18% in the past year, it's become more expensive in India. Retail prices in New Delhi were 17% higher Thursday than a year ago, just months before Modi is due to seek re-election and rising prices are a top concern for voters. Soaring food costs pushed inflation to a three-month high in June and may even send it back above the central bank's 6% target ceiling.

There are signs India's most-recent wheat harvest suffered another year of weather damage. Excessive rain in March hit the crop at a vital grain-filling stage. While the farm ministry predicted that production would climb to an all-time high of 112.7 million tons, other forecasters were less upbeat. A flour miller group estimated that the harvest was just 102.9 million tons.

Separately, the government is said to be examining plans to import 9 million tons of wheat from Russia to boost stockpiles, the Economic Times reported.