Manpower shortages hold back more accurate weather forecasts

Infograph: TBS

Aiming to make weather forecasts more accurate and cutting-edge, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has been equipped with expensive modern technologies, including 225 automatic weather stations, since 2016.

However, a lack of trained meteorologists and engineers hinders the agency from fully utilising the technologies.

After a long process of correcting, adding and vetting the department's demand letter, a committee of secretaries on administrative development in April 2023 recommended the creation of 192 posts, including 94 different categories of meteorologists and 26 categories of engineers, for the agency operated under the defence ministry.

However, although the department is understaffed and struggling to adopt new technologies, no government order has been issued yet to address the issue.

Only two members of staff have been operating the agency's Ramgati observatory station, shouldering the responsibility of five. The Chandpur station has been operated by two staff members despite the need for seven.

Sitakunda station had been facing a similar situation until an official was transferred there in mid-July this year. More than one automatic weather station is installed in each of these three stations, which are among the department's 62 stations struggling with severe manpower shortages.

Several meteorologists and engineers at the Met Office said an observatory station runs round-the-clock in three shifts. Due to the manpower shortage, they have to work more than eight hours a day, and they are overstressed.

To strengthen its forecasting efficiency through weather monitoring, measuring the height of water surges, and salinity-induced damage assessment, at least 225 automatic weather stations have been installed. Of these, 125 are for agriculture-centric weather updates, 35 are replacements for conventional weather data observation at 35 stations, and 65 are optical rain gauges.

The stations were installed under a Tk245.87 crore project, for which the World Bank has funded Tk217.58 crore.

When the project is complete, at least 50 high-performance PC clustering systems at the Met Department's headquarters in Dhaka will be able to analyse data from automatic weather stations (input every 10 minutes) and forecast extreme situations 10 days in advance.

Under another project costing Tk208.57 crore, the agency has installed meteorological radar systems in Dhaka and Rangpur to provide timely forecasts of nor'westers, tornadoes, excessive rain, and cyclones.

Besides, between 2016 and 2020, the Met Office installed an ocean monitoring system in Saint Martin's and Kutubdia, and carbon profilers in Dhaka, Rajshahi, Khulna, Chattogram, and Sylhet.

However, the flip side of the agency's technical development is the sheer negligence in organising its skilled manpower, which has resulted in poor maintenance of the technologies.

Since 2017, the Met Office has not gone for any new recruitments or promoted any existing staff, despite the retirement of a considerable number – at least 15 – of skilled manpower every year.

In March 2022, a high-impact weather assessment toolkit was introduced in the agency's weather forecast. TBS reported the development. The toolkit, which is integrated into Nasa's earth-observing satellites, was designed to provide a 54-hour probabilistic forecast for lightning strikes, high-impact winds, high rainfall rates, hail, and other weather events.

Due to a lack of maintenance, the toolkit has become dysfunctional. Several officials at the Met Office have expressed their concern that the new equipment, such as automatic weather stations, will also become dysfunctional in phases if the shortage of manpower remains unaddressed.

Md Azizur Rahman, director at the Met Department, admitted that adequate manpower is crucial despite automation. "At least there should be skilled manpower to keep the technology operational round-the-clock," he said.

In 2015, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence Ministry strongly recommended the upgradation of the Met Office's organogram with necessary recruitment rules. The recommendation was accepted by the Ministry of Public Administration.

Since then, several letters conveying proposals and corrections on the upgrade of the organogram have been exchanged among the public administration, law, and defence ministries. With 192 new posts, the department's new organogram of 1,338 posts has been recommended by the committee of secretaries on administrative development. So far, there is no expected outcome.

Although the director of the department expected the finalisation of the new organogram by this month, he did not confirm an update about the new recruitment rules. 

Mohammad Shubid Ali Bhuiyan, chairman of the parliamentary standing committee, expressed his anguish at the long delay in the process.

"The committee duly addressed the manpower shortage in the highly technical department. It is unfortunate that this shortage has not been minimised in eight years. We will hold the related officials accountable for the delay," the senior parliamentarian said on 31 July.

Amid changing weather patterns and climates, the importance of accurate weather forecast-generated early warning is indeed crucial for the protection of life and property.

The national meteorological service provider is mandated by laws to provide citizens with accurate weather forecasts, for which a fully functional department is important.