Global supply chains near make-or-break point for easing in 2022 | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Friday
June 13, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
FRIDAY, JUNE 13, 2025
Global supply chains near make-or-break point for easing in 2022

World+Biz

Bloomberg
25 January, 2022, 06:55 pm
Last modified: 25 January, 2022, 07:00 pm

Related News

  • 10 more Covid-19 cases reported in country
  • Chattogram prepares hospitals amid rise in Covid cases
  • Govt advises against non-essential travel to India amid rising Covid-19 risks
  • Bangladesh reports 3 more Covid-19 cases
  • Screening tightened at Benapole border to prevent spread of new Covid variant

Global supply chains near make-or-break point for easing in 2022

Bloomberg
25 January, 2022, 06:55 pm
Last modified: 25 January, 2022, 07:00 pm
The Biden administration is monitoring real-time data obtained from businesses operating in China to determine whether omicron outbreaks there pose a risk to US supply chain. Photo: Collected
The Biden administration is monitoring real-time data obtained from businesses operating in China to determine whether omicron outbreaks there pose a risk to US supply chain. Photo: Collected

Global supply chains are nearing a turning point that's set to help determine whether logistics headwinds abate soon or keep restraining the global economy and prop up inflation well into 2022, according to several new barometers of the strains.

Just a week before the start of Lunar New Year, the holiday celebrated in China and across Asia that coincides with a peak shipping season, economists from Wall Street to the US central bank are unveiling a string of models in the hope of detecting the first signs of relief in global commerce.

From Europe to the US and China, production and transportation have stayed bogged down in the early days of 2022 by labour and parts shortages, in part because of the fast-spreading omicron variant.

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

Among the big unknowns: whether solid demand from consumers and businesses will start to loosen up, allowing economies to finally see some easing in supply bottlenecks. Fresh indicators from the private and official sectors are in high demand because there's still much uncertainty in industries overlooked by mainstream economics before the pandemic.

Once the realm of trade and industrial organization experts, supply chains "have shifted to centre stage as a critical driver of sky-high inflation and a stumbling block to the recovery," Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik said. "The profusion of new indices and trackers won't unblock the arteries of the global economy any quicker. They should give policymakers and investors a better idea of how fast -- or slowly -- we are getting back to normal."

The Bloomberg Economics Index

Bloomberg Economics' latest supply constraint index for the US shows that shortages have trended modestly lower for six months. Even so, strains remain elevated, and the wave of worker absenteeism is adding to the problems at the start of 2022.

Port traffic tracked by Bloomberg shows container congestion continues to rankle the US supply chain from Charleston, South Carolina, to the West Coast. The tally of ships queuing for the neighbouring gateways of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, continued to extend into Mexican waters, totalling 111 vessels late Sunday, nearly double the amount in July.
 
Kuehne+Nagel's Disruption Indicator

Kuehne+Nagel International AG last week launched its Seaexplorer disruption indicator, which the Swiss logistics company says aims to measure the efficiency of container shipping globally. It shows current disruptions at nine hot spots is hovering near "one of highest levels ever recorded," with 80% of the problems happening at North American ports.

Flexport's Gauges

Another freight forwarder, San Francisco-based Flexport Inc., last year developed its Post-Covid Indicator to try to pinpoint the shift by American consumers back to purchasing more services and away from pandemic-fueled goods. The latest reading released 14 January "indicates the preference for goods will likely remain elevated during the first quarter of 2022."

Flexport has a new Logistics Pressure Matrix with a heat map showing demand and logistics trends, and much of those numbers are still flashing yellow or red. Flexport supply chain economist Chris Rogers said in a recent online post that similar grids for Asia and European markets will be part of the research.

The Federal Reserve's Stress Monitor

Adding their stamp to the burgeoning genre of supply stress indicators were three PhD economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with the launch its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Rolled out earlier this month, it shows that the difficulties, "while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward." The New York Fed said it plans a follow-up report to quantify the impact of shocks on producer and consumer price inflation.

Morgan Stanley's Index

Less than a week later came the Morgan Stanley Supply Chain Index. It lined up with the Fed's view that frictions have probably peaked, though some of the improvement ahead will come from a slowdown in the demand for goods.

"Supply disruptions remain a constraint to global trade recovery, but as firms continue to make capacity adjustments to address them, capacity expansion could mitigate these," Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a report 12 January.

Citigroup's Tool

Citigroup Inc. last week released research that was less optimistic yet complementary to the New York Fed's work, which Citi said doesn't factor the role of surging demand as a contributor to the supply disruptions.

Co-written by Citi's global chief economist Nathan Sheets, a former US Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, the bank's analysis "gives a more complete, and intuitive, picture of the current situation." While strains may ease in coming months, Citi said, "these supply-chain pressures are likely to be present through the end of 2022 and, probably, into 2023 as well."

The Keil Institute's Flows Tracker

In Germany, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy updates twice a month its Trade Indicator, which looks at flows across the US, China and Europe. Its latest reading 20 January shows that along the key trading route between Europe and Asia, there are 15% fewer goods moving than there would be under normal times. The last time the gap was that large was in mid-2020, when many economies were reeling from initial lockdowns, Kiel said.

More recently, "the omicron outbreak in China and the Chinese government's containment attempts through hard lockdowns and plant closures are likely to have a negative impact on Europe in the spring," says Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator, said in a post last week. "This is also supported by the fact that the amount of global goods stuck on container ships recently increased again."

Top News

Economic recovery / COVID-19

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Aerial view of Grosvenor Square Gardens, London — home to several properties owned by influential families and businesses with ties to the Awami League. Photo: Google Earth
    Lengthy legal road ahead to repatriate Saifuzzaman's wealth from UK
  • From fact-checker to fact-checked: CA Press Wing’s turn in the hot seat
    From fact-checker to fact-checked: CA Press Wing’s turn in the hot seat
  • Wreckage of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner showing part of its registration "VT-ANB" in Ahmedabad, India, June 12, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave
    Air India plane crash: Not all dead, one survivor identified, 204 bodies recovered

MOST VIEWED

  • Keir Starmer declines to meet CA Yunus: FT report
    Keir Starmer declines to meet CA Yunus: FT report
  • Wreckage of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner showing part of its registration "VT-ANB" in Ahmedabad, India, June 12, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave
    Air India plane crash: Not all dead, one survivor identified, 204 bodies recovered
  • Saifuzzaman Chowdhury. Photo: Collected
    UK crime agency now freezes assets of ex-land minister Saifuzzaman: AJ
  • File Photo of Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus: UNB
    Prof Yunus to receive Harmony Award from King Charles today
  • Infofgraphics: TBS
    DGHS issues 11-point directive to prevent spread of Covid-19 in Bangladesh
  • Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur. TBS Sketch
    Bangladesh mulls settlements with tycoons over offshore wealth: BB governor tells FT

Related News

  • 10 more Covid-19 cases reported in country
  • Chattogram prepares hospitals amid rise in Covid cases
  • Govt advises against non-essential travel to India amid rising Covid-19 risks
  • Bangladesh reports 3 more Covid-19 cases
  • Screening tightened at Benapole border to prevent spread of new Covid variant

Features

Among pet birds in the country, lovebirds are the most common, and they are also the most numerous in the haat. Photo: Junayet Rashel

Where feathers meet fortune: How a small pigeon stall became Dhaka’s premiere bird market

1d | Panorama
Illustration: Duniya Jahan/ TBS

Forget Katy Perry, here’s Bangladesh’s Ruthba Yasmin shooting for the moon

2d | Features
File photo of Eid holidaymakers returning to the capital from their country homes/Rajib Dhar

Dhaka: The city we never want to return to, but always do

3d | Features
Photo collage shows political posters in Bagerhat. Photos: Jannatul Naym Pieal

From Sheikh Dynasty to sibling rivalry: Bagerhat signals a turning tide in local politics

5d | Bangladesh

More Videos from TBS

Banks' estimates were wrong: Bangladesh Bank spokesperson

Banks' estimates were wrong: Bangladesh Bank spokesperson

3h | Podcast
What exactly happened to the ill-fated Boeing aircraft?

What exactly happened to the ill-fated Boeing aircraft?

4h | TBS World
Govt to set up Debt Office as loan burden to hit Tk29 lakh cr by FY28

Govt to set up Debt Office as loan burden to hit Tk29 lakh cr by FY28

5h | TBS Insight
Curfew imposed for second night in Los Angeles

Curfew imposed for second night in Los Angeles

5h | TBS World
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net