US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say

Highlights:

• US officials see Beijing more likely to consider force in 2028 and beyond
• Sources cite PLA readiness delays amid Xi's anti-corruption campaign as a significant factor
• Some Chinese officials hope Taiwan's 2028 vote yields government more amenable to Beijing, sources say

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the ​democratically governed island by force, if needed, people familiar with US thinking said.

The main reasons include delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign as well as Beijing's eagerness to see the results ‌of Taiwan's 2028 election, which some Chinese officials hope could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control, according to two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter.

Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan's election sees the Democratic Progressive Party win a fourth consecutive term, and in particular if current President Lai Ching-te wins reelection, the people added.

"If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty," said one of the US officials, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

Lai, who took office two years ​ago, and his ruling DPP, champion Taiwan's separate identity from China, a position that frequently angers Beijing, which views the island as an inviolable part of Chinese territory. Taiwan strongly objects to China's claims and says only its people can decide ​their future.

The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is a significant update to the years-long understanding among US officials that Xi wanted his military ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in ⁠2027, the centenary of the founding of its People's Liberation Army. China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control but has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order.

Taiwan's presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement that under ​Lai's leadership, Taiwan will not only strengthen its self-defense capabilities but will also continue to work closely with all international democratic allies, including the US, to maintain the status quo, deter threats through strength, and ensure peace.

"For the sake of its citizens' freedom, democracy, prosperity, ​and well-being, Taiwan will not abandon its commitment to democracy and freedom in the face of any military threat," she added.

The Pentagon declined to comment, while China's foreign ministry and its embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

In a speech this week, Xi referred to Taiwan and talked about promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to achieve "reunification."

The 2027 benchmark, which analysts say is about Chinese military preparedness rather than a timeline for invasion, has for years created a sense of urgency across multiple US administrations in countering China in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US intelligence community has hinted at ​Chinese wariness before. It said in its annual threat assessment in March that China did not, at least at that point, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to wrest control of the island without the use of force, if possible.

Us elections as a factor?

The US is Taiwan's most important international backer and weapons supplier despite a lack of formal diplomatic ties, and US officials offered mixed assessments of the degree to which China might view the 2028 US presidential election as an important indicator for military action.

While three ‌of the people ⁠familiar with the matter said Beijing may also want to evaluate the outcome of the US election, particularly given rising American voter antipathy toward US military action abroad, the first US official said Beijing viewed both Democrats and Republicans as largely aligned on Taiwan.

While China might have a preference in the 2028 US election, "it doesn't become as decisive a factor in my opinion, as it might have been 15 years ago," the official said.
US President Donald Trump has downplayed the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency, going so far as to say last year that Xi told him China would not invade while he was in office.

Trump made limited comments on Taiwan after hosting Xi in Washington last week, saying only that the issue of Taiwan came up when the two spoke and that Xi ​understood his position.

China calls Taiwan its single most important issue ​and a matter of Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity.

It has ⁠called for an end to US arms sales to Taiwan. Since his May trip to Beijing, Trump has held off on approving a new arms package worth some $14 billion, describing it as a "negotiating chip."

For years, the US strategy has focused on arming Taiwan so that it can hold off Chinese forces long enough for the United States and others to come to its aid.

Anti-corruption drive

China's Xi has not ​rescinded his goal for the People's Liberation Army to have the capabilities available to take Taiwan by force by next year, officials say.

But the military didn't accomplish as much last year ​militarily as it probably had intended because ⁠of the impact of China's anti-corruption campaign, the people said.

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has unleashed a sweeping corruption and discipline crackdown. Millions within China's vast bureaucracy have been investigated, with scores of senior party, government and military officials ensnared and purged.

In recent years, the People's Liberation Army has been a target of the campaign. A string of investigations and expulsions has left just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission, including Xi himself, who serves as chair.

Short, sharp war

China's military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening compared to ⁠the past several ​years, according to the US official. While they bounced back a bit this year, the official suggested Chinese military officials were dissatisfied with their readiness.

The official ​said China was believed to have drawn a lesson from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, which is the need to move quickly once any invasion begins and avoid getting bogged down in a sustained conflict.

More work remained for China.

"There are way too many pieces that aren't quite in place yet for what would be ​the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy," the official said.