Tumbling tech darlings slam brakes on AI rally

Highlights

• KOSPI dives 5%, Nikkei drops 3.8% as AI rally stalls
• Oil and dollar rise on Middle East tensions
• Shifting Fed rate expectations send investors to the exit

Asian stocks plunged on Monday as investors rushed out of the hottest AI-linked shares on fears the bull run has gone too far, too fast and as fresh hostilities in Iran pushed up oil prices.

The twin triggers for a rout that is highlighting a fragile market mood were last week's disappointing outlook at chipmaker Broadcom and a surprisingly strong US jobs report on Friday that has traders pricing a rate hike this year.

Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI, the world's best-performing market this year, led losses in Asia with a 5% slide that has the benchmark down 13% from last week's record high.

Japan's Nikkei fell almost 4% with market darlings across the computer-chip production supply chain falling furthest, while Taiwan's benchmark sank 3.9%.

Nasdaq futures were attempting a recovery following a sharp selloff on Friday and European futures fell 1%.

The Nasdaq dropped 4.2% on Friday.

"The move looks more like a positioning and momentum unwind than a reassessment of the long-term AI story," said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

"Korean technology names have been among the strongest performers globally and were heavily owned, so when rate expectations shifted after the jobs report, they became a natural source of liquidity."

In bonds, 2-year Treasury yields rose more than 11 basis points on Friday and were up 1.6 bps on Monday to 4.1782%.

"The AI-drives-everything narrative frayed last week," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

"Whether this is a healthy pause in the nine-week equity rally or a top remains the key question. The IPO focus on SpaceX and Anthropic is part of the pause – whether to make room for the new market cap or to rethink value."

Inflation and ECB ahead

The Middle East situation also remains delicate and Brent crude futures were up about 3.5% to $96.45 a barrel on Monday after Israel said it struck military targets in western and central Iran.

The week ahead is headlined by the giant SpaceX listing, expected to price on Thursday and trade on Friday, but inflation will also be in focus with US consumer price data due on Wednesday and central bank meetings in Canada and Europe.

Last week, bitcoin notched its heaviest weekly drop since the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in late 2022, falling about 16%. It was hovering just shy of $63,000 on Monday.

SpaceX's debut is expected to be followed by other major IPOs in the coming months from Anthropic and OpenAI, raising so much money that brokers are nervous it could draw down other assets.

"The market regime has potentially shifted from moderate inflation and rate cuts to potential 'overheating' contributing to higher Treasury yields, a higher path of short-term interest rates and tighter liquidity," said Nick Ferres, CIO of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to the fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months.

In currency trading, the dollar was firm and holding above 160 yen and it pushed the Australian dollar to $0.7055. The euro hovered at $1.1531.