Balancing act: Can Turkey do without Russian energy?
Last year, Turkey also sourced 41% of its natural gas imports from Russia
Both the US and G7 nations have asked Turkey to stop buying Russian oil and gas. However, Turkey remains dependent on Russia for its energy and is pursuing a different strategy altogether.
The scene in the Oval Office as US President Donald Trump met Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was noteworthy. Trump was effusive as he lavished praise on Erdogan in front of assembled journalists.
"It's a pleasure to be with President Erdoğan of Turkey," Trump said, "and we've been friends for a long time … he's a highly respected man. He's respected very much in his country and all throughout Europe."
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He's doing an "amazing job," Trump added.
However all the sweeteners did come with a demand: Turkey should stop buying oil and gas from Russia.
There has also been increased pressure from the Group of Seven, or G7, nations around this topic.
Following a virtual meeting last week, finance ministers of the seven leading industrialized nations — Germany, the UK, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the US — said they would take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting countries that are continuing to increase purchases of Russian oil or countries that are facilitating circumvention of energy sanctions.
Over half of oil imports from Russia
So far though Turkey hasn't responded to either Trump's requests or to the G7 statement. Then again maybe this shouldn't be surprising as Turkey is hugely dependent on Russia for its energy supplies.
According to Turkey's Energy Market Regulatory Authority, or EPDK, 66% of Turkish oil imports came from Russia last year. According to Turkish energy expert, Necdet Pamir, a year earlier, the number was 68%. At the end of 2022, it had been 41%.
Last year, Turkey also sourced 41% of its natural gas imports from Russia.
The high percentages are a direct consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Under sanctions from the European Union, Russia has been selling its oil at lower prices. Stopping Russian oil imports would not only jeopardize Turkey's energy security, it would also negate the price advantages Turkey is currently benefitting from.
Immediately after the Trump-Erdogan meeting, the Kremlin spoke out. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian gas pipelines to Turkey were operating at full capacity.
"We are continuing our trade and economic cooperation with the Republic of Turkey," Peskov said. "It is a sovereign state that decides for itself in which areas to cooperate with us. If certain types of trade in certain goods are considered profitable by the Turkish side, then it will continue to buy them."
A different strategy for Turkey
In fact, observers do not expect Turkey to stop buying Russian energy in the future. Instead the Turkish are quietly pursuing a different strategy: diversification.
During Erdogan's recent visit to the US, BOTAS, the state-owned company responsible for Turkey's oil and gas infrastructure and gas trade, announced two long-term contracts that would expand its sources of natural gas.
One was with US company Mercuria for a total of 70 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas, to run for 20 years, starting 2026. The other was with Australian firm Woodside Energy, for 5.8 billion cubic meters of LNG.
The Turkish government has been making significant efforts recently to diversify its energy sources in order to ensure energy security, notes Kadri Tastan, a senior non-resident fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Brussels office. At the same time it's also been promoting domestic energy sources and renewables.
A report by the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects indicated that in 2022, fossil fuels still made up around 84% of Turkey's energy market while renewable energies sit at around 16%.
Tastan says the new agreements are also about better relations with the US, which have been strained in recent years. President Trump wants to increase US sales of fossil fuels and these new agreements could be used as a tool in negotiations around things like tariffs, Tastan suggests.
In addition to the US, Turkey has also signed LNG contracts with Egypt, Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria in recent years.
Turkey is also dependent on Russia for other energies. In 2022, the country covered 43% of its lignite needs with Russian imports. And Akkuyu, Turkey's first nuclear power plant, is being built in the south of the country with the assistance of the Russian atomic power firm, Rosatom.
Akkuyu's completion has been delayed due to sanctions against Russia but Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has said it's scheduled to start operating next year, even if it won't be completely finished until 2028.
It's likely that Turkey will continue to have to deal with a complex balancing act when it comes to its energy supplies.
