Policy flaws widen gaps between Dhaka and other cities: Urban experts

Highlights

• Decentralising Dhaka could raise benefits by 60%, Ctg by 20%.
• Overcrowding in Dhaka causes 6%-10% economic losses
• Urban industrial job growth fell from 5% (2010-2017) to 1% (2017-2022)
• The urban population rose from 22.4m in 1991 to 53.8m in 2022
• Urban data can mislead; 60% of Rangpur City is rural

Urban experts have warned that policy-induced factors have widened the gaps between Dhaka and other cities in socio-economic conditions, development, employment, and civic services.

They said decentralising Dhaka could increase benefits by 60%, while Chattogram's decentralisation could boost benefits by 20%. They stressed that government development plans must be based on careful analysis of beneficiaries and thorough calculations, noting that architects often do not share these, making plans unsustainable.

The statements were made at a seminar titled "Urbanisation and Bangladesh's Development – Selected Findings from BIDS-PRI Research", organised by the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI) today (18 September) at the PRI Conference Room.

There is no second city besides Dhaka, and that is a problem. Chattogram is losing its importance.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, Executive Chairman, PPRC

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and chief guest of the seminar, said, "Political decentralisation is not being discussed in Bangladesh. We should strengthen our existing local governments and focus not only on the deconcentration of responsibilities but also on the decentralisation of authority. It is crucial to develop city management skills, especially for mayors and their teams."

He stressed three dimensions to understand urban realities — data, interest group analysis, and policy decentralisation. 

"Current urban data often gives a misleading picture. For example, 60% of Rangpur City Corporation is actually rural. We need new ways to measure true urban density. It is also important to know who influences change. In Bangladesh, the bureaucracy is one of the most powerful beneficiary groups," he said.

Rahman added that the Geneva Camp could become a major research centre for land management due to its intensive operations within a small area. He highlighted the importance of giving local governments both responsibilities and authority, warning that discussions on political decentralisation are largely absent, even at the Consensus Commission.

"In Bangladesh, there is no second city besides Dhaka, and that is a problem. Chattogram is losing its importance. Previously, it housed the main offices of the Railway and the Navy, but centralised policies have moved them elsewhere," he said.

He further noted, "Decentralisation is very important, but it is often only seen as local government elections. The gap between Dhaka and other cities has grown abnormally due to policy decisions. 

"The concept of the 'mofossol'—rural and district towns—is fading. These towns used to host important schools and institutions, supporting local development. If the families of Union Parishad chairmen live in Dhaka, the union becomes a place for exploitation rather than development. We need to rethink the mofossol and improve local institutions and quality of life."

Rahman also cautioned that, similar to villages being neglected by researchers in the 2000s, cities now risk the same fate. "Urban-focused research is urgent. Managing cities requires specialised skills, which are currently missing at all levels of governance and must be developed quickly," he said.

Ahmad Ahsan, director of PRI, said in his keynote presentation, "While urbanisation has long driven growth, the current Dhaka-centric pattern is unsustainable. Too much concentration of people and economic activity in the capital is causing economic losses estimated at 6%–10%."

Sharing research findings, he said, "Urban industrial employment growth fell sharply from 5% (2010–2017) to 1% (2017–2022). This decline poses a major challenge for urban economic development. Manufacturing firms are moving to rural areas, showing a loss of urban competitive advantage. Growth in urban output, employment, capital, and wages is lagging behind rural growth."

Ahsan added, "Urban population growth is plateauing. Between 1991 and 2022, it rose from 22.4 million (20.1%) to 53.8 million (31.7%). Nightlight density growth of 18% per year suggests GDP growth of 5.5–6% annually, reflecting convergence in economic activity."

He noted that some relocation of people and industries is happening outside Dhaka, but mostly bypassing secondary cities and moving to smaller towns and rural areas, reducing the benefits of urbanisation and weakening long-term growth. 

He attributed these challenges to the lack of a national policy on urbanisation, no dedicated ministry, and fragmented governance among elected city leaders, central agencies, and line ministries, leaving many plans ineffective or ignored.

Discussant Imran Matin, executive director of BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), said the study relied on highly disaggregated data, which are rarely available, and urged the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics to lead in producing such datasets. 

He highlighted the costly 'missing middle' dynamic where resources bypass second-tier cities and flow directly to rural areas. "We must harness knowledge outside Dhaka and ensure citizen participation in city governance," he added.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist of PRI, argued that city development authorities were designed to weaken city corporations and centralise power. 

"Urbanisation has expanded without parallel improvements in urban services, creating deep mismatches. Without institutional change, planned urbanisation and decentralisation will remain orphan agendas," he warned.